(2009). The comparison of different methods for forecasting spices imports in IranCase study: cinnamon, cardamoms and curcuma. , 16(4), 19-40. doi: 10.30490/aead.2009.58854
. "The comparison of different methods for forecasting spices imports in IranCase study: cinnamon, cardamoms and curcuma". , 16, 4, 2009, 19-40. doi: 10.30490/aead.2009.58854
(2009). 'The comparison of different methods for forecasting spices imports in IranCase study: cinnamon, cardamoms and curcuma', , 16(4), pp. 19-40. doi: 10.30490/aead.2009.58854
The comparison of different methods for forecasting spices imports in IranCase study: cinnamon, cardamoms and curcuma. , 2009; 16(4): 19-40. doi: 10.30490/aead.2009.58854

The comparison of different methods for forecasting spices imports in IranCase study: cinnamon, cardamoms and curcuma

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
Article 2, Volume 16, Issue 4 - Serial Number 64, July 2008, Pages 19-40    PDF (339.27 K)
Document Type: Original Article
DOI: 10.30490/aead.2009.58854
Abstract
The aim of this study is to compare different quantitative forecasting methods including regression and non-regression for forecasting spices import such as cinnamon, cardamoms and curcuma. data for this reason was collected from foreign trade statistics year book of Islamic Republic of Iran during the period of 2004-2010.
Based on results of Wallis-Moore Test, curcuma imports are stochastic and cannot be forecasted. In addition, the results of comparison between different methods show that ARMA is the best method in forecasting cinnamon and Cardamoms imports. The forecasting results indicate that cinnamon import will have more fluctuation in the future. Planning for import and quota is a management implication of this study.
JEL Classification: F49, F47
References
Statistics
Article View: 336
PDF Download: 493


counter
Journal management system. designed by sinaweb