| تعداد نشریات | 286 |
| تعداد نشریات سازمان | 84 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 3,020 |
| تعداد مقالات | 33,742 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 44,988,801 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 47,429,129 |
ارزیابی ارتباط روند برخی از عوامل آب‌و‌هوایی بر رواناب سطحی در حوزه های آبخیز سواحل جنوبی ایران | ||
| پژوهش های آبخیزداری | ||
| مقاله 8، دوره 31، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 119، تیر 1397، صفحه 79-92 اصل مقاله (1.26 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/wmej.2018.120263.1070 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مهدی مرادی1؛ ام البنین بذرافشان* 2؛ عبدالرضا بهره مند3؛ یحیی اسماعیل‌پور4 | ||
| 1دانشگاه هرمزگان | ||
| 2گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان | ||
| 3دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی گرگان | ||
| 4دانشگاه هرمزگان-دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی-گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری | ||
| چکیده | ||
| تغییرات اقلیم که به تغییر در چرخه‌ی آب‌شناسی انجامیده است، بر منابع آب‌های سطحی و زیرزمینی تأثیر می‌گذارد. مؤثرترین روش برای درک بهتر تغییرات آب‌شناسی متأثر از تغییر اقلیم، تحلیل روند گروه‌های زمانی آب‌شناسی جریان رود‌‌هااست. در این پژوهش، روند عامل‌های آب‌دهی جریان رودها، دماهای کمینه و بیشینه، تبخیر، مقدار بارش، شدت و تداوم بارش، به‌صورت فصلی و سالانه و به تفکیک هر زیرحوزه بررسی شد. در این تحقیق، از روش‌های آمار پارامتری (تحلیل رگرسیون) و ناپارامتری شامل اسپیرمن، من-کندال و من-کندال اصلاح‌شده، در دو مقیاس زمانی سالانه و فصلی استفاده شد. طول دوره‌ی آماری 31 سال، از سال آبی 1362–1361 تا سال 93–1392 بود و تعداد 22 زیرحوزه، براساس تفکیک حوزه‌ی آبخیز درجه‌ی 3 وزارت نیرو، در حوزه‌های آبخیز سواحل جنوبی خلیج‌فارس و دریای عمان برگزیده شدند. نتایج نشان داد که در بیش از 50% از ایستگاهها، رواناب روند کاهشی دارد. این کاهش عمدتاً در ایستگاه‌های بخش مرکزی، حوزه‌ی آبخیز بندر-سدیج و کل-مهران دیده می‌شود. در مقابل، در بیش از 90% از ایستگاهها، روند شدت بارش افزایشی و مدت بارش کاهشی است. دما نیز روند افزایشی، و تبخیر روند کاهشی دارد. بنابراین، یکی از عوامل تأثیرگذار بر آب‌دهی جریان تغییر الگوی بارش، یعنی کاهش تداوم بارش و افزایش شدت آن است. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تحلیل روند؛ شدت و مدت بارش؛ حوزه‌های آبخیز جنوبی؛ رواناب | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Assessment of the Relations between the Trends of Climatic Factors and River Flow in Southern Coastal Watersheds, Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Mehdi Moradi1؛ Ommolbanin Bazrafshan2؛ Abdolreza Bahreman3؛ Yahya Esmaelpour4 | ||
| 1university of hormozgan | ||
| 2University of Hormozgan | ||
| 3Gorgan university | ||
| 4Hormozgan | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on regional water resources, affecting both ground and surface water supplies. A better understanding of hydrological changes associated with climate change can be achieved by analyzing the temporal trends in river discharge time series. We used the parametric test (regression analysis) and non-parametric Spearman's rho, Mann- Kendal and TFPW Mann- Kendal approaches to evaluate annual and seasonal trends in river flow data from 22 sub basins (based on the classification of the Ministry of Power) located in the southern regions of Iran over a 31-year period spanning the hydrological years 1981–1982 to 2001–2013. The data used include pan evaporation, discharge, minimum and maximum air temperatures, depth, intensity and duration of rainfall at each sub basin. Results showed that in more than 50% of the hydrometric stations, runoff had a decreasing trend. This trend was apparent in the central watershed consisting of Bandar-Sedij and Kol-Mehran sub basins. Conversely, more than 90% of the stations, duration and intensity rainfall had decreasing and increasing trends, respectively. Furthermore, minimum and maximum air temperature trend had an increasing while evaporation had a decreasing trend. In conclusion, factors influencing the declining discharge trend can be changed by changing the rainfall pattern, decreasing the rainfall duration and increasing its intensity. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| trend analysis, duration and intensity of rainfall, southern coastal watersheds, runoff | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Alijani B, Mahmodi P, Saligheh M, Rigi Chahi A. 2011. Study of variations of annual minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran. Geographical Researches Quarterly Journal. 3(102): 101–122. (In Persian). Ansari M, Nori G, Fotoohi S. 2017. Investigation of the process of temperature, precipitation and discharge changes using by non-parametric Man-Kendall test (Case study: Kajaw River Basin in Sistan and Baluchestan Province). Journal of Watershed Management Research. 14: (3): 152–158. (In Persian). Asadi A, Akbari Azirani T. 2016. Analysis of variations the beginning and ending of precipitations with trending models in south west of Iran. Sustinable Development of Geographical Enviroment. 1(3): 94–103. (In Persian) Asgari A, Rahimzadeh F. 2007. Study of the variability of rainfall in recent decades of Iran. Geographical Research Magazine.58 (2): 67–80. (In Persian). Azizi Gh. 2004. climate change. Published Ghoomes. Tehran. Bazrafshan O, CheshmBerah A. Holisaz A. 2016. Trend analysis of the pan evaporation in different climates of Hormozgan Province. Journal Management System. 4 (2): 171– 176. Borna R, Jahan I, 2015. Study of the trend of temperature and rainfall extreme indexes in southwest of Iran (Case study: Bushehr Province). Natural Geography Quarterly. 8(28): 43– 64. (In Persian) Chen j, Wub X, Finlayson B, Webber M, Wei T, Li M. 2014. Variability and trend in the hydrology of the Yangtze River, China: Annual precipitation and runoff. Journal of Hydrology. 513(5): 403–412. Douglas E. M, Vogel R. M, Kroll C. N, 2000. Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. Journal of Hydrology. 240 (1): 90-105. Fathian F, Morid, S. 2012. Study of climate and hydrologic trends in Lake Urmia watershed using non-parametric methods. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research. 43(3): 259–269. (In Persian). Feidas H, Noulopoulou Ch, Makrogiannis T, Bora-Senta E. 2007. Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 87 (3): 155–177. Garbrecht J, Van Liew M. 2004. Trends in precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration in the Great Plains of the United States, Journal of Hydrological Engineering. 9 (5): 360–367. Ghahraman N, Gharekhani A, Bazrafshan J. 2012. Trend analysis of pan evaporation in different climates of Iran. Watershed Management Research (Pajouhesh & Sazandegi). 98 (4): 85–97. (In Persian). Ghanbari S. 2017. Astudy of pan evaporation with climatic factors in the southern coastal of Iran. MSc thesis, 95 pp. (In Persian). Hedayati Dezfoli A. 2003. An analysis of changes in precipitation and its trend in Tehran. Third Climate Change Conference and First National Climate Change Conference. (In Persian). Helsel D. R, Hirsch R. M. 1992. Statistical methods in water resources (Vol. 49). Elsevier. Hosseinzadeh Talaee P, Tabari H, Abghari H. 2013. River flow trends in the west of Iran during the past 40 years: Impact of precipitation variability Global and Planetary Change. 101(2): 52–60. Katiraei P, Hejam S. Iran Nezhad P. 2007. Contribution of frequency variation and rainfall intensity of rainfall during the period 2001 to 1960. Jornal of Earth and Space Physics. 33(1): 67– 83. Kendall MG. 1975. Rank correlation cethods. 4th ed. Charles Griffin: London. Kisi, O. 2015. An innovative method for trend analysis of monthly pan evaporations. Journal of Hydrology. 527 (2): 1123–1129. Kouchaki A, Sharifi H. R, Zand Z. 1998. Ecological consequences of climate change. University Jahad Press. Mashhad. (In Persian). Mann H.B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica. 13 (2): 245–259. Masih, I., Uhlenbrook, S. and V. Smakhtin. 2011. Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the Zagros Mountains, Iran. Climate Change. 104 (2): 317–338. Minaei M, Irannezhad M. 2018. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, and river discharge in the northeast of Iran in recent decades. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 131(1–2): 167–179. Modarres R, Silva V. 2007. Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Journal of Arid Environments. 70 (2): 344–355. Mohammadi, B. 2013. Annual trend analysis of Iranian heavy rainfall. Geographical Researches Quarterly Journal. 28(1): 163– 176. Moradi M. 2016. Factors a effecting of run off changes with an emphasis on climatic parameters (Case study: South coastal of Iran). MSc thesis, University of Hormozgan. 105 pp. (In Persian). Odekunle T.O, 2006. Determining rainy season onset and retreat over Nigeria from precipitation amount and number of rainy days. Theoretical and applied climatology. 83(4):193–201. Razeie T, Daneshkar Arasteh P, Saghafian B. 2004. Annual rainfall trend analysis in arid and semi- arid regions of central and eastern Iran. Water and Wastewater Consulting engineers Journal. 16 (2): 73–81. Salas J. D, Delleur J.W, Yevjevich V, Lane W.L. 1980. Applied Modelling of Hydrologic Time Series. Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO, USA. Su B. D, Jiang T, Jin W. B. 2006. Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China. Theoretical and Applied Climatolology. 83: 139–151. Sun S, Barraud S, Branger F, Braud I, Castebrunet H. 2016. Urban hydrologic trend analysis based on rainfall and runoff data analysis and conceptual model calibration. Hydrological Processes 2017. 31(2): 1349–1359. Torabi Poudeh H, Emamgholizadeh S. 2015. Trend Analysis of Stream flow changing of north watershed of Dez River with MK test with the TFPW-MK procedure. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 22(3): 39–55. Varshavian V, Khalili A, Ghahreman N, Hajjam S. 2011. Trend analysis of minimum, maximum, and mean daily temperature extremes in several climatic regions of Iran. Jornal of Earth and Space Physics. 37(1): 169– 179. Yue S, Wang CY. 2004. The Mann–Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resource Management. 18 (2): 201–218. Zamani R, Abdollahi S, Mirabbasi R. 2015. Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological parameters of the four major dams in southwest of Iran. Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies. 5 (18): 55–75. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 506 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 550 |
||