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Determination the role of climate change and land use on future desertification status, case study: Sabzevar | ||
| مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز | ||
| Article 20, Volume 11, Issue 3, October 2019, Pages 806-818 PDF (1.58 M) | ||
| Document Type: Research Paper | ||
| DOI: 10.22092/ijwmse.2017.110164.1297 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Ali Akbar Nazari Samani* 1; Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi2; MAHSA abdolshahnejad3; Sina Syadi Lotf Abadi4; Majid Habibi Nokhandan5 | ||
| 1Associate professor,College of Agriculture & Natural, University of Tehran | ||
| 2Associate professor,College of Agriculture & Natural | ||
| 3university of tehran | ||
| 4Master of Science graduated of desertification, College of Agriculture & Natural, University of Tehran | ||
| 5Associate professor of Climatological Research Institute | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Greenhouse gases have continued to increase in the atmosphere. This is largely due to industrial activities. The warming effect of greenhouse gas, increased over the last 200 years, due to carbon dioxide; hence the temperature of the lower levels of atmosphere will be increased. The climate change across the world resulted in an increased drought; disturbance in rainfall as well as desertification. Desertification has been caused by a variety of factors such as climate change. It is a significant natural resources problem. The aim of this study was to evaluate the desertification during five periods (1978-1987, 1978-2007, 2012-2041, 2042-2071, and 2072-2101) during the last, present, and future, using IMDPA model as well as climate and geology-geomorphology criteria. For each criterion, some indexes were selected, using area condition. First, air temperature and precipitation during the previous time was evaluated. Then, the climate change was estimated using two climatic models of HADCM3 and GFDL2.1 and three scenarios of A2, B1 and A1B of GCM as well as small scale exponentially. The land use map for four classes in two periods (1986 and 2010) was prepared and used for input data to the Markov chain for estimating future land changes through the three periods (1419, 1449, and 1479). Results were used as the land use index for working unit in geology-geomorphology criterion. It was assumed that the tolerance of stone to the erosion and slope of maps were constants. Hence, this criterion was studied during five periods. Results showed that the intensity of desertification was increased during the time. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Criteria; Greenhouse gases; Index; IMDPA; Markov chain model | ||
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