اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات285
تعداد نشریات سازمان83
تعداد شماره‌ها3,109
تعداد مقالات34,657
تعداد مشاهده مقاله49,815,132
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله80,163,805
مومنه, صادق, آذری, آرش, اقبال‌زاده, افشین. (1399). ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 12(4), 913-928. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530
صادق مومنه; آرش آذری; افشین اقبال‌زاده. "ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 12, 4, 1399, 913-928. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530
مومنه, صادق, آذری, آرش, اقبال‌زاده, افشین. (1399). 'ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 12(4), pp. 913-928. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530
مومنه, صادق, آذری, آرش, اقبال‌زاده, افشین. ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1399; 12(4): 913-928. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530

ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال

مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز
مقاله 4، دوره 12، شماره 4، دی 1399، صفحه 913-928    اصل مقاله (1.42 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530
نویسندگان
صادق مومنه1؛ آرش آذری* 2؛ افشین اقبال‌زاده3
1کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه رازی،کرمانشاه
2استادیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه
3دانشیار گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه
چکیده
در این پژوهش، به بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی دشت چمچمال در دو دوره 20 ساله آتی پرداخته شد. برای شبیه‌سازی آبخوان، از مدل آب زیرزمینی Groundwater Modeling System استفاده کرده و برای ارزیابی و تصدیق عملکرد مدل به­ترتیب برای دو دوره 18 ماهه واسنجی و صحت­سنجی انجام شد. در بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر نوسانات تراز آب زیرزمینی منطقه در دوره­ آتی شش مدل گردش عمومی جو-اقیانوسی (AOGCM)  تحت سه سناریو انتشار A2 ،A1B و B1 مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. سپس، برای در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت پیش­بینی مدل­های تغییر اقلیم برای پارامترهای دما و بارش از دو روش وزن‌دهی و استخراج سطوح احتمالاتی استفاده شد. نتایج پیش­بینی متغیرهای اقلیمی برای سناریوهای A2 ،A1B و B1 و دو سطح احتمال 90 و 50 درصد به­ترتیب نشان­دهنده تغییرات میانگین دما به میزان 0.57+، 0.57+، 0.57+، 0.04- و 0.6+ درجه سانتی­‌گراد و تغییرات میانگین بارش به‌میزان 0.12+، 1.8-، 2.49+، 31.78- و 2.33- درصد طی دوره 2030-2011 بود. به همین ترتیب، برای دوره 2065-2046 تغییرات میانگین دما 1.92+، 2.12+، 1.46+، 0.98+ و 2.3+ درجه سانتی­گراد و تغییرات میانگین بارش به میزان 20.59-، 26.07-، 19.55-، 47.15- و 15.74- درصد برآورد شد. نهایتا، اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آبخوان تحت سناریو­ها مشخص شد. نتایج نشان داد، سطح آب زیرزمینی تحت سناریوهای A2، A1B و B1 و دو سطح احتمالاتی 90 و 50 درصد برای دوره­های 2030-2011 و 2065-2046 بین 9.6- تا 17.92- متر افت خواهد داشت که نسبت به دوره 2015-1996 به میزان 1.06- تا 9.38- متر تغییر تراز را نشان داد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
سناریوهای اقلیمی؛ عدم قطعیت؛ مدل گردش عمومی جو-اقیانوسی(AOGCM)؛ مدل GMS؛ مدل WG- LARS
عنوان مقاله [English]
Assessing the effect of climate change on groundwater levels in the upcoming periods, case study: Chamchamal Plain
نویسندگان [English]
Sadegh Momeneh1؛ Arash Azari2؛ Afshin Eghbalzadeh3
1MSc of Civil Engineering, Engineering and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Technical Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
2Assistant Professor of Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Science and Agricultural Engineering, Razi University ,Kermanshah, Iran
3Associate Professor of Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Razi University ,Kermanshah, Iran
چکیده [English]
In this research, the effect of climate change on the groundwater level of Chamchamal Plain in the two 20-year periods was investigated. The GMS groundwater model was used to simulate the aquifer and was calibrated and verified for evaluation and validation of the model for two periods of 18 months, respectively. In order to investigate the effect of climate change on the fluctuations of groundwater level in the region, six AOGCM models were used under three emission scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 in the upcoming period. Then, two methods of weighting and extraction of probabilistic levels were used to consider the uncertainty prediction of climate change models for temperature and precipitation parameters. The predicted climatic variables for scenarios A2, A1B and B1, and two Probability levels 90% and 50%, respectively, show the average temperature changes of +0.57, +0.57, +0.57, -0.04 and +0.6 °C and average precipitation variation of +0.12, -1.8, +2.49, -31.78 and -2.33 during the period 2011-2030. Similarly, for the period 2046-2065, the average temperature changes were +1.92, +2.12, +1.46, +0.98 and +2.3°C, and the average precipitation variation was -20.59, -26.07, -19.55, -47.15 and -15.74 percent. Finally, the effect of climate change on the aquifer level was determined under scenarios. The results showed the groundwater level, under scenarios A2, A1B and B1 and two probabilistic levels of 90 and 50 percent for the periods 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 will drawdown between -9.6 to -17.92 meters, which is Compared to the period 1996-2015, it showed a change in level between -1.06 to -9.38 meters.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM), Climate scenarios, GMS model, LARS-WG model, Uncertainty
مراجع

 

  1. Acharyya, A. 2014. Groundwater, climate change and sustainable well being of the poor: policy options for South Asia, China and Africa. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 157: 226 – 235.
  2. Akbarzadeh, Y., M. Eslahi, F. Sadeghi Shaghaghi and M.D. Babaie. 2014. Investigating the effects of climate change on groundwater resources, a case study: Sufi Chay Basin. Second Regional Conference on Climate Change and Earth's Heat, Zanjan, Climate Change Research Institute and Ground Warming (in Persian).
  3. Akhoni Pourhosseini, F., S. Darbandi and I. Asadi. 2015. Assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater resources. Water Engineering Conference and Exhibition, Tehran (in Persian).
  4. Ansari, S., A.R. Massah Bavani and A. Roozbahani. 2016. Effects of Climate change on groundwater recharge, a case study: Sefid Dasht Plain. Journal of Water and Soil, 30(2): 416-431 (in Persian).
  5. Ansari, H., M. Khadivi, N. Salehnia and I. Babaeian. 2014. Evaluation of uncertainty LARS Model under scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 in Precipitation and Temperature Forecast, a case study: Mashhad Synoptic Stations. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 4(8): 664-672 (in Persian).
  6. Ashofteh, P. and O. Bozorg Haddad. 2013. Probabilistic approach to assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources. Journal of Water Resources Engineering, 6: 51-66 (in Persian).
  7. Babaeian, I., M. Zarghami, M. Koohi, O. Babaeian, M. Karimian and R. Modirian. 2013. Water resources assessment over Gharaghom Catchment under climate change, case study of Daregaz Sub-basin. Journal of Water and Soil, 27(5): 907-918 (in Persian).
  8. Boyce, S.E., T. Nishikawa and W.W. Yeh. 2015. Reduced order modeling of the Newton formulation of MODFLOW to solve unconfined groundwater flow. Advances in Water Resources, 83: 250-262.
  9. Changnon, S.A., F.A. Huff and C.F. Hsu. 1988. Relations between precipitation and shallow groundwater in Illinois. Journal of Climate, 1: 1239–1250.
  10. Chen, H., S. Wang, Z. Gao and Y. Hu. 2010. Artificial neural network approach for quantifying climate change and human activities impacts on shallow groundwater level, a case study of Wuqiao in North China Plain. IEEE 2010 18th International Conference on Geoinformatics Beijing, China [doi:10.1109_GEOINFORMATI CS. 2010.5567678].
  11. Crosbie, R.S., B.R. Scanlon, F.S. Mpelasoka, R.C. Reedy, J.B. Gates and L. Zhang. 2013. Potential climate change effects on groundwater recharge in the High Plains Aquifer, USA. Water Resources Research, 49, doi: 10. 1002 /wrcr.20292.
  12. Dehn, M., G. Burger, J. Buma and P. Gasparetto. 2000. Impact of climate change on slope stability using expanded downscaling. Engineering Geology, 55: 193–204.
  13. Ghasemi, A., A. Fattahi and O.S. Babaei. 2013. The impact of climate change on runoff with the uncertainty approach to the models of general circulation of barley. Geographical Studies in Arid Areas, 13(4): 53-37 (in Persian).
  14. Goderniaux, P., S. Brouyère, H.J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop and R. Therrien. 2009. Large scale surface–subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves. Journal of Hydrology, 373: 122-138.
  15. Graham, P., S. Hagemann, S. Juan and M. Beniston. 2007. On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Journal of Climatic Change, 81: 97-122.
  16. Groves, D.G., D. Yates and C. Tebaldi. 2008. Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning. Water Resources Research, 44: 1-16.
  17. Haghighi, P., S.J. Sadatinejad, A.A. Matkan and H.M. Jahangir. 2016. Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources, a case study: Bakhtegan Watershed Bakhtegan. MSc Thesis, University of Tehran, 128 pages (in Persian).
  18. Husseini khah, M., H. Zayni Wand, A. Haghizadeh and N. Tahmasebi Pour. 2014. Verification of temperature and precipitation values ​​of general circulation models at stations in Kermanshah, Ravansar and Eslamabade Gharb, 1(3): 195-206 (in Persian).
  19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2001. Third assessment report on climate change. 4th Assessment Report on Climate Change, http://www .ipcc.ch.
  20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2010. Meeting report IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi model climate projections. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado, USA, 115 pages.
  21. Jackson, C., R. Meister and C. Prudhomme. 2011. Modeling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections. Journal of Hydrology, 399: 12-28.
  22. Jalili, K., A.R. Moradi and O. Bozorg Haddad. 2016. Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in Islam Abad Aquifer and land allocation optimization. Scientific Journal of the Ecosystem of the Desert, 5(11): 11-27 (in Persian).
  23. Kamal, AR. and AR. Massah Bavani. 2011. Evaluation of uncertainty of AOGCM-AR4 models and hydrologic models in estimating temperature, precipitation and runoff of Ghareh Sou Basin under the influence of climate change. Iranian Journal of Water Research, 5(9): 50-39 (in Persian).
  24. Karamoz, M., A. Aboul Pour and S. Nazif. 2011. Evaluation of the effect of climate change on groundwater resources in the case of Rafsanjan Plain. Fourth Iranian Conference on Resources Management, Tehran, Amir Kabir University of Technology, 13 and 14 May (in Persian).
  25. Kumar, C.P. and S. Singh. 2015. Climate change effects on groundwater resources. Journal of Environmental Research, 3(4): 264-271.
  26. Mahmoodian Shooshtari, M. 2015. Hydraulics of groundwater. Shahid Chamran University Press, 539 pages (in Persian).
  27. Meddi, M. and A. Boucefiane. 2013. Climate change impact on groundwater in Cheliff-Zahrez Basin, Algeria. ICESD 2013: January 19-20, Dubai, UAE, APCBEE Procedia, 5: 446-450.
  28. Meixner, T., A.H. Manning, D.A. Stonestrom, D.M. Allen, H. Ajami, K.W. Blasch, A.E. Brookfield, C.L. Castro, J.F. Clark, D.J. Gochis and A.L. Flint. 2016. Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States. Journal of Hydrology, 534: 124–138.
  29. Mohanty, S., M.K. Jha, A. Kumar and D. Panda. 2013. Comparative evaluation of numerical model and arti_cial neural network for simulating groundwater ow in Kathajodi-Surua Interbasin of Odisha, India. Journal of Hydrology, 495: 38-51.
  30. New, M. and M. Hulme. 2000. Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte-Carlo approach. Integrated Assessment, 1: 203–213.
  31. 31. Racsko, P., L. Szeidl and M. Semenov. 1991. A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecological Modelling, 57: 27–41.
  32. Razaie Banafsheh, M., T. Jalali Ansaroodi, M. Zarghami and A. Asghari Moghaddam. 2015. Investigate of climate change impacts on groundwater level in Tasuj Basin by statistical downscaling method. Iran-Water Resources Research, 11(2): 106-116 (in Persian).
  33. Rossman, N.R., V.A. Zlotnik and C.M. Rowe. 2017. Using cumulative potential recharge for selection of GCM projections to force regional groundwater models: a Nebraska Sand Hills example. Journal of Hydrology, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.019.
  34. Salami, H., H. Nassery and A. Massah Bavani. 2015. Probabilistic forecast of climate change effects on Hamadan-Bahar Aquifer. Journal of Water and Irrigation Management, 5(1): 27-41 (in Persian).
  35. Scibek, J. and D.M. Allen. 2006. Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resources Research, 42(W11405), doi: 10.1029/2005WR004742.
  36. Seeboonruang, U. 2016. Impact assessment of climate change on groundwater and vulnerability to drought of areas in Eastern Thailand. Environmental Earth Sciences, 75(1): 42-58.
  37. Semenov, M.A. and R.J. Brooks. 1999. Spatial interpolation of the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator in Great Britain. Climate Research, 11(2): 137-148.
  38. Semenov, M.A. and P. Stratonovitch. 2010. The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research, 41: 1−14.
  39. Senatore, A., G. Mendicino, G. Smiatek and H. Kunstmann. 2011. Regional climate change projections and hydrological impact analysis for a Mediterranean basin in Southern Italy. Journal of Hydrology, 399(2011): 70–92.
  40. Shakiba, A. and A. Cheshmi. 2011. Assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Ramhormoz Plain using the NARX Neural Network. Journal of Earth Science Researches, 8(2): 46-57.
  41. Soleimani, F., A. Kolahchi and A. Arsham. 2017. Investigation of climate change effect on groundwater balance and level in Plain Ramhormoz. Extension and Development of Watershed Management, 5(17): 17-35 (in Persian).
  42. Wilby, R. and I. Harris. 2006. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames. UK, Water Resources Research, 42(2): 23-40.
  43. Xu, C. 1999. From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modeling approaches. Progress in Physical Geography, 232: 229–249.
  44. Zektser, I.S. and H.A. Loaiciga .1993. Groundwater fluxes in the global hydrologic cycle: past, present and future. Journal of Hydrology, 144: 405– 427.
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,686
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 745


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب