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مومنه, صادق, آذری, آرش, اقبال‌زاده, افشین. (1399). ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 12(4), 913-928. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530
صادق مومنه; آرش آذری; افشین اقبال‌زاده. "ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 12, 4, 1399, 913-928. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530
مومنه, صادق, آذری, آرش, اقبال‌زاده, افشین. (1399). 'ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 12(4), pp. 913-928. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530
مومنه, صادق, آذری, آرش, اقبال‌زاده, افشین. ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1399; 12(4): 913-928. doi: 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530

ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی در دوره‌های آتی، مطالعه موردی: دشت چمچمال

مهندسی و مدیریت آبخیز
مقاله 4، دوره 12، شماره 4، دی 1399، صفحه 913-928    اصل مقاله (1.42 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijwmse.2019.122960.1530
نویسندگان
صادق مومنه1؛ آرش آذری* 2؛ افشین اقبال‌زاده3
1کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه رازی،کرمانشاه
2استادیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه
3دانشیار گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه
چکیده
در این پژوهش، به بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی دشت چمچمال در دو دوره 20 ساله آتی پرداخته شد. برای شبیه‌سازی آبخوان، از مدل آب زیرزمینی Groundwater Modeling System استفاده کرده و برای ارزیابی و تصدیق عملکرد مدل به­ترتیب برای دو دوره 18 ماهه واسنجی و صحت­سنجی انجام شد. در بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر نوسانات تراز آب زیرزمینی منطقه در دوره­ آتی شش مدل گردش عمومی جو-اقیانوسی (AOGCM)  تحت سه سناریو انتشار A2 ،A1B و B1 مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. سپس، برای در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت پیش­بینی مدل­های تغییر اقلیم برای پارامترهای دما و بارش از دو روش وزن‌دهی و استخراج سطوح احتمالاتی استفاده شد. نتایج پیش­بینی متغیرهای اقلیمی برای سناریوهای A2 ،A1B و B1 و دو سطح احتمال 90 و 50 درصد به­ترتیب نشان­دهنده تغییرات میانگین دما به میزان 0.57+، 0.57+، 0.57+، 0.04- و 0.6+ درجه سانتی­‌گراد و تغییرات میانگین بارش به‌میزان 0.12+، 1.8-، 2.49+، 31.78- و 2.33- درصد طی دوره 2030-2011 بود. به همین ترتیب، برای دوره 2065-2046 تغییرات میانگین دما 1.92+، 2.12+، 1.46+، 0.98+ و 2.3+ درجه سانتی­گراد و تغییرات میانگین بارش به میزان 20.59-، 26.07-، 19.55-، 47.15- و 15.74- درصد برآورد شد. نهایتا، اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آبخوان تحت سناریو­ها مشخص شد. نتایج نشان داد، سطح آب زیرزمینی تحت سناریوهای A2، A1B و B1 و دو سطح احتمالاتی 90 و 50 درصد برای دوره­های 2030-2011 و 2065-2046 بین 9.6- تا 17.92- متر افت خواهد داشت که نسبت به دوره 2015-1996 به میزان 1.06- تا 9.38- متر تغییر تراز را نشان داد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
سناریوهای اقلیمی؛ عدم قطعیت؛ مدل گردش عمومی جو-اقیانوسی(AOGCM)؛ مدل GMS؛ مدل WG- LARS
عنوان مقاله [English]
Assessing the effect of climate change on groundwater levels in the upcoming periods, case study: Chamchamal Plain
نویسندگان [English]
Sadegh Momeneh1؛ Arash Azari2؛ Afshin Eghbalzadeh3
1MSc of Civil Engineering, Engineering and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Technical Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
2Assistant Professor of Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Science and Agricultural Engineering, Razi University ,Kermanshah, Iran
3Associate Professor of Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Razi University ,Kermanshah, Iran
چکیده [English]
In this research, the effect of climate change on the groundwater level of Chamchamal Plain in the two 20-year periods was investigated. The GMS groundwater model was used to simulate the aquifer and was calibrated and verified for evaluation and validation of the model for two periods of 18 months, respectively. In order to investigate the effect of climate change on the fluctuations of groundwater level in the region, six AOGCM models were used under three emission scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 in the upcoming period. Then, two methods of weighting and extraction of probabilistic levels were used to consider the uncertainty prediction of climate change models for temperature and precipitation parameters. The predicted climatic variables for scenarios A2, A1B and B1, and two Probability levels 90% and 50%, respectively, show the average temperature changes of +0.57, +0.57, +0.57, -0.04 and +0.6 °C and average precipitation variation of +0.12, -1.8, +2.49, -31.78 and -2.33 during the period 2011-2030. Similarly, for the period 2046-2065, the average temperature changes were +1.92, +2.12, +1.46, +0.98 and +2.3°C, and the average precipitation variation was -20.59, -26.07, -19.55, -47.15 and -15.74 percent. Finally, the effect of climate change on the aquifer level was determined under scenarios. The results showed the groundwater level, under scenarios A2, A1B and B1 and two probabilistic levels of 90 and 50 percent for the periods 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 will drawdown between -9.6 to -17.92 meters, which is Compared to the period 1996-2015, it showed a change in level between -1.06 to -9.38 meters.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM), Climate scenarios, GMS model, LARS-WG model, Uncertainty
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