اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات286
تعداد نشریات سازمان84
تعداد شماره‌ها3,014
تعداد مقالات33,693
تعداد مشاهده مقاله44,883,047
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله42,956,988
معززی, فاطمه, موسوی, سید حبیب الله, یاوری, غلامرضا, باقری, مهرداد. (1400). ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر امنیت غذایی و رفاه اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی دشت همدان- بهار. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29(2), 249-292. doi: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288
فاطمه معززی; سید حبیب الله موسوی; غلامرضا یاوری; مهرداد باقری. "ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر امنیت غذایی و رفاه اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی دشت همدان- بهار". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29, 2, 1400, 249-292. doi: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288
معززی, فاطمه, موسوی, سید حبیب الله, یاوری, غلامرضا, باقری, مهرداد. (1400). 'ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر امنیت غذایی و رفاه اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی دشت همدان- بهار', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29(2), pp. 249-292. doi: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288
معززی, فاطمه, موسوی, سید حبیب الله, یاوری, غلامرضا, باقری, مهرداد. ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر امنیت غذایی و رفاه اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی دشت همدان- بهار. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1400; 29(2): 249-292. doi: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288

ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر امنیت غذایی و رفاه اقتصادی: مطالعه موردی دشت همدان- بهار

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
دوره 29، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 114، شهریور 1400، صفحه 249-292    اصل مقاله (429.21 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288
نویسندگان
فاطمه معززی1؛ سید حبیب الله موسوی* 2؛ غلامرضا یاوری3؛ مهرداد باقری4
1دانشجوی دکتری و مربی گروه اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
2نویسنده مسئول و دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3دانشیار گروه اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
4استادیار گروه اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
چکیده
امروزه، یکی از مهم‏ترین چالش‏ ها در حفظ ثبات و پایداری توسعه اقتصادی منطقه‌ای و ملی پدیده تغییرات اقلیمی و پیامدهای آن است که تهدیدی جدی برای نظام‏ های طبیعی، منابع آب و رفاه اجتماعی و اقتصادی محسوب می‏شود. از این ‏رو، درک رابطه بین تغییرات اقلیمی و متغیرهای اقتصادی- اجتماعی مانند امنیت غذایی و رفاه اقتصادی که در مطالعات اخیر، کمتر بدان پرداخته شده، ضروری است. هدف مطالعه حاضر ارزیابی آثار رفاهی و امنیت غذایی تغییرات اقلیمی در دشت همدان- بهار بود. در این راستا، متغیرهای بارندگی و دما در افق 2070 بر اساس سناریوهای اقلیمی منتخب پیش‌بینی شد و سپس، با برآورد تابع واکنش عملکرد، محاسبه تغییرات عملکرد ناشی از پارامترهای آب‏ و هوایی ؛ و در نهایت، با تدوین یک الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی غیرخطی شامل ابعاد اقتصادی، زراعی و هواشناسی، اثرات بالقوه تغییر اقلیم بر رفاه اقتصادی و امنیت غذایی تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی منتخب در افق 2070 در مقایسه با سال پایه (2018) ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات اقلیمی با کاهش دسترسی به آب، از یک سو، با کاهش تولید و افزایش قیمت موادغذایی، موجب کاهش مازاد رفاه مصرف‏کننده می‏ شود و از سوی دیگر، موجب افزایش درآمد خالص مزرعه خواهد شد، اما همچنان در تمامی سناریوها رفاه اقتصادی کل کاهش خواهد یافت؛ بنابراین، حتی با تغییرات خوش‏بینانه اقلیم، رفاه مصرف‏ کننده و به تبع آن، امنیت غذایی کاهش می ‏یابد. همچنین، بر پایة یافته ‏های پژوهش حاضر، بیشترین کاهش مازاد مصرف‏ کننده در تمامی سناریوها مربوط به محصولات راهبردی تأمین‌کننده امنیت غذایی خواهد بود؛ با این حال، با اتخاذ راهبرد سازگاری بهبود راندمان آبیاری در سناریوهای مورد بررسی به مقادیر مختلف، زیان رفاهی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم به‏‏طور کامل خنثی خواهد شد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
امنیت غذایی؛ رفاه اقتصادی؛ مازاد مصرف‏کننده؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ دشت همدان- بهار
عنوان مقاله [English]
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Economic Welfare: Case Study Hamedan-Bahar Plain
نویسندگان [English]
F. Moazzezi1؛ S. H. Mosavi2؛ Gh. Yavari3؛ M. Bagheri4
1Ph.D. Student and Instructor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2Corresponding Author and Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and
4Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]
Today, one of the most important challenges in maintaining the stability and sustainability of regional and national economic development is the phenomenon of climate change and its consequences, which is a serious threat to natural systems, water resources and social and economic well-being. Therefore, understanding the relationship between climate change and socio-economic variables such as food security and economic welfare, is necessary.This research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security and economic welfarein the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this regard, the variables of rainfall and temperature for the horizon of 2070 were predicted underselected climate scenarios and by estimating yield response functions, the products yield changes due to climatic parameters were measured. Finally, by developing a nonlinear mathematical planning model including economic, agronomic and meteorological dimensions, the potential effects of climate change on economic welfare and food security under the selected climatic scenarios in 2070 horizon compared to 2018(baseline) were evaluated. The results showed that climate change on the 2070 horizon would reduce water access, food production and supply, and ultimately reduce consumer welfare surpluses and increase food prices. Accordingly, the farm income would increase but still total economic welfare decline. On the other hand, the largest reduction in consumer surplus in all scenarios is related to strategic products that provide food security. However, the strategy of improving irrigation efficiency by 4.7, 20.8, 5.5 and 24.1%, respectively in scenarios B1, A2, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, will be completely neutralize welfare losses due to climate change.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Food security, Economic welfare, Consumer surplus, Climate change, Hamedan-Bahar plain
مراجع

 

  1. Al-Hasan, A.A.S. and Mattar, Y.E.S. (2013). Mean runoff coefficient estimation for ungauged streams in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 7: 2019-2029.
  2. Alcamo J., Dronin N., Endejan M. and Kirilenko A.P. 2007. A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia. Global Environmental Change, 17(3-4): 429-444.
  3. Amiri, M.J., Karbasi, A.R., Zoghi, M. and Sadat, M. (2015). Detection of climate changes by mann-kendall analysis and drought indexes (case study: Agh Gol wetland). Journal of Environmental Studies, 41(3): 545-561. DOI: 10.22059/jes.2015.55896. (Persian)
  4. Attavanich, W. and McCarl, B.A. (2011). The effect of climate change, CO2 fertilization, and crop production technology on crop yields and its economic implications on market outcomes and welfare distribution. Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association’s 2011 AAEA & NAREA Joint Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, July 24-26, 2011.
  5. Barani, N. and Karami, A. (2019). The impacts of climate change on total agronomical production in tenfold agro-ecological zones of Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 33(1): 95-107. (Persian)
  6. Calvin, K., Mignone, B.K., Kheshgi, H.S., Snyder, A.C., Patel, P., Wise, M., . . . Edmonds, J.A.E. (2020). Global market and economic welfare implications of changes in agricultural yields due to climate change. Climate Change Economics, 11(01): 2050005. DOI: 10.1142/S2010007820500050.
  7. Chang, C.-C. (2002). The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 27: 51-64. DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2002.tb00104.x
  8. Cortignani, R. and Severini, S. (2009). Modeling farm-level adoption of deficit irrigation using Positive Mathematical Programming. Agricultural Water Management, 96(12): 1785-1791.
  9. Feola, G., Lerner, A., Jain, M., Montefrio, M.J. and Nicholas, K. (2015). Researching farmer behaviour in climate change adaptation and sustainable agriculture: lessons learned from five case studies. Journal of Rural Studies, 39: 74-84. DOI:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2015.03.009.
  10. Ferreira, F.H.G., Fruttero, A., Leite, P.G. and Lucchetti, L.R. (2013). Rising food prices and household welfare: evidence from Brazil in 2008. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 64(1), 151-176. DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.2012.00347.x.
  11. Gohar, A.A., Amer, S.A. and Ward, F.A. (2015). Irrigation infrastructure and water appropriation rules for food security. Journal of Hydrology, 520: 85-100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.036.
  12. Gohar, A.A. and Cashman, A. (2016). A methodology to assess the impact of climate variability and change on water resources, food security and economic welfare. Agricultural Systems, 147: 51-64. Available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.008.
  13. Gohar, A.A., Cashman, A. and Ward, F.A. (2019). Managing food and water security in Small Island States: new evidence from economic modelling of climate stressed groundwater resources. Journal of Hydrology, 569: 239-251.
  14. Gohar, A.A., Ward, F.A. and Amer, S.A. (2013). Economic performance of water storage capacity expansion for food security. Journal of Hydrology, 484: 16-25. Available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.005.
  15. He, L., Tyner, W.E., Doukkali, R. and Siam, G. (2006). Policy options to improve water allocation efficiency: analysis on Egypt and Morocco. Water International, 31(3): 320-337.
  16. Hertel, T. and Rosch, S. (2010). Climate change, agriculture, and poverty. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 32(3): 355-385.
  17. Hoseini, S.S., Nazari, M. and Araghinejad, S. (2013). Investigating the impacts of climate on agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research (IJAEDR), 44(1). (Persian)
  18. Howitt, R.E. (1995). Positive mathematical programming. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 77(2): 329-342.
  19. IPCC (2014). Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge, UK and NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2.
  20. IWRM (2009). Annual report of groundwater resources of Hamadan-Bahar Plain. Iran Water Resources Management (IWRM), Regional Water Company of Hamadan (RWCH). Available at http://www.hmrw.ir. (Persian)
  21. Junk, W.J. (2013). Current state of knowledge regarding South America wetlands and their future under global climate change. Aquatic Sciences, 75(1): 113-131. DOI: 10.1007/s00027-012-0253-8.
  22. Karimi Kakhki, M. and Sepehri, A. (2011). Climate change trends during two periods in Hamedan and Tabriz. Water and Soil Science (Agricultural Science), 20/1(4): 143-155. (Persian)
  23. Khalilian, S., Shemshadi, K., Mortazavi, S.A. and Ahmadian, M. (2014). Investigating welfare effect of climate change on the wheat products in Iran. Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development, 28(3): 292-300. (Persian)
  24. Lobell, D., Bänziger, M., Magorokosho, C. and Vivek, B. (2011). Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nature Climate Change, 1(1): 42-45.
  25. Lobell, D. and Field, C. (2007). Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2: 014002. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002
  26. Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Popp, A. and Füssel, H.-M. (2012). Food Security in a Changing Climate. In: Climate Change, Justice and Sustainability, pp. 33-43.
  27. Madani, K. (2014). Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis? Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 4(4): 315-328. DOI: 10.1007/s13412-014-0182-z.
  28. Medellín-Azuara, J., Howitt, R. and Harou, J. (2012). Predicting farmer responses to water pricing, rationing and subsidies assuming profit maximizing investment in irrigation technology. Agricultural Water Management, 108: 73-82.
  29. Misselhorn, A., Aggarwal, P.K., Ericksen, P., Gregory, P., Horn-Phathanothai, L., Ingram, J. and Wiebe, K. (2012). A vision for attaining food security. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 4: 7-17. DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2012.01.008.
  30. Momeni, S. and Zibaei, M. (2013). Possible impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of Fars province. Journal of Economics and Agricultural Development, 27(3): 169-179. (Persian)
  31. Moore, F.C., Baldos, U., Hertel, T. and Diaz, D. (2017). New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon. Nature Communications, 8(1): 1607. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01792-x.
  32. Moore, F.C. and Lobell, D.B. (2015). The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, 112(9): 2670-2675. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1409606112.
  33. Moridi, A. (2017). State of water resources in Iran. International Journal of Hydrology, 1(4): 111-114. DOI: 10.15406/ijh.2017.01.00021.
  34. Mosavi, S.H., Soltani, S. and Khalilian, S. (2020). Coping with climate change in agriculture: evidence from Hamadan-Bahar Plain in Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 241: 106332. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106332.
  35. Movahedi, S., Sabziparvar, A.A., Masoodian, A. and Maryanji, Z. (2013). Investigating the changes of seasonal rainfall pattern in Hamedan province. Geographical Researches Quarterly Journal, 28(2): 33-48. (Persian)
  36. Nikouei A. (2012). Integrated economic-hydrologic modeling of water allocation and use in Zayandeh-Roud river basin with emphasis on evaluation of environmental and drought policies. Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran, 271pp. (Persian)
  37. Ozkan, B. and Akcaoz, H. (2002). Impacts of climate factors on yields for selected crops in the southern Turkey. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 7(4): 367-380.
  38. Paroon, S. (2018). Evaluation of yield and welfare effects caused by changes in the climate factors and predicting their effects on the selected agricultural products: a case study of Hormozgan province. PhD Thesis, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran. (Persian)
  39. Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. and Fischer, G. (2004). Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14(1): 53-67.
  40. Pradhan, N.S., Sijapati, S. and Bajracharya, S.R. (2015). Farmers' responses to climate change impact on water availability: insights from the Indrawati Basin in Nepal. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 31(2): 269-283. DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2015.1033514.
  41. Redden, R.J., Hatfield, J.L., Prasad, V., Ebert, A.W., Yadav, S.S. and O’Leary, G.J. (2014). Temperature, climate change, and global food security. Temperature and Plant Development, 8: 181-202.
  42. Sabouhi and Ahmadpour M. (2012). Estimation of Iran agricultural products demand functions using mathematical programming (application of maximum entropy method). Journal of Agricultural Economics, 6(1): 71-91. (Persian)
  43. Shi, W., Tao, F. and Zhang, Z. (2013). A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 23(3): 567-576.
  44. Singh, J. and Vatta, K. (2013). Rise in food prices and changing consumption pattern in rural Punjab. Current Science, 1022-1027.
  45. Smith, J.B., Schneider, S.H., Oppenheimer, M., Yohe, G.W., Hare, W., Mastrandrea, M.D., . . . Magadza, C.H. (2009). Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(11): 4133-4137.
  46. Soltani, S. and Mousavi, S.H. (2016). Evaluating the potential effects of climate changes on yield and value-added in the agricultural sector in Hamedan-Bahar Plain. Agricultural Economics Research, 8(30): 95-112. (Persian)
  47. Stevanović, M., Popp, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Dietrich, J.P., Müller, C., Bonsch, M., . . . Weindl, I. (2016). The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare. Science Advances, 2(8): e1501452. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501452.
  48. Von Braun, J. (2007). The world food situtation: new driving forces and required actions: Food Policy Report, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/0896295303.
  49. Walthall, C., Hatfield, J., Backlund, P. and Lengnick, L. (2012). Climate change and agriculture in the United States: effects and adaptation. USDA Technical Bulletin.
  50. Wang, W.W. (2012). Three essays on climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. Ph.D Dissertation, Texas AandM University.
  51. World Bank (2010). World development report 2010 : development and climate change. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4387.
  52. Yadav, S.S., Hunter, D., Redden, R., Nang, M., Yadava, D.K. and Habibi, A.B. (2015). Impact of climate change on agriculture production, food and nutritional security. In: Redden, R. (et al.) (eds.) Crop wild relatives and climate change. Wiley-Blackwell. pp. 1-23. ISBN: 978-1-118-85433-4
  53. Zareabyaneh, H., Mehran, A. and Akhavan, S. (2015). Evaluation of virtual water trade volume of main crops in Hamadan province. Iranian Water Research Journal, 9(3 /18): 151-161. (Persian)
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 1,842
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 776


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب