Moazzezi, F., Mosavi, S., Yavari, G., Bagheri, M. (2021). Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Economic Welfare: Case Study Hamedan-Bahar Plain. , 29(2), 249-292. doi: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288
F. Moazzezi; S. H. Mosavi; Gh. Yavari; M. Bagheri. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Economic Welfare: Case Study Hamedan-Bahar Plain". , 29, 2, 2021, 249-292. doi: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288
Moazzezi, F., Mosavi, S., Yavari, G., Bagheri, M. (2021). 'Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Economic Welfare: Case Study Hamedan-Bahar Plain', , 29(2), pp. 249-292. doi: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288
Moazzezi, F., Mosavi, S., Yavari, G., Bagheri, M. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Economic Welfare: Case Study Hamedan-Bahar Plain. , 2021; 29(2): 249-292. doi: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Economic Welfare: Case Study Hamedan-Bahar Plain

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
Volume 29, Issue 2 - Serial Number 114, September 2021, Pages 249-292    PDF (429.21 K)
Document Type: Original Article
DOI: 10.30490/aead.2021.352780.1288
Authors
F. Moazzezi1; S. H. Mosavi* 2; Gh. Yavari3; M. Bagheri4
1Ph.D. Student and Instructor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2Corresponding Author and Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and
4Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Development, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Today, one of the most important challenges in maintaining the stability and sustainability of regional and national economic development is the phenomenon of climate change and its consequences, which is a serious threat to natural systems, water resources and social and economic well-being. Therefore, understanding the relationship between climate change and socio-economic variables such as food security and economic welfare, is necessary.This research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security and economic welfarein the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this regard, the variables of rainfall and temperature for the horizon of 2070 were predicted underselected climate scenarios and by estimating yield response functions, the products yield changes due to climatic parameters were measured. Finally, by developing a nonlinear mathematical planning model including economic, agronomic and meteorological dimensions, the potential effects of climate change on economic welfare and food security under the selected climatic scenarios in 2070 horizon compared to 2018(baseline) were evaluated. The results showed that climate change on the 2070 horizon would reduce water access, food production and supply, and ultimately reduce consumer welfare surpluses and increase food prices. Accordingly, the farm income would increase but still total economic welfare decline. On the other hand, the largest reduction in consumer surplus in all scenarios is related to strategic products that provide food security. However, the strategy of improving irrigation efficiency by 4.7, 20.8, 5.5 and 24.1%, respectively in scenarios B1, A2, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, will be completely neutralize welfare losses due to climate change.
Keywords
Food security; Economic welfare; Consumer surplus; Climate change; Hamedan-Bahar plain
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