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پیشبینی زیتوده اندامهای هوایی و زیرزمینی گونههای قابل چرا در اثر چرای دام با استفاده از سیستم استنتاج فازی- عصبی (ANFIS) | ||
| تحقیقات مرتع و بیابان ایران | ||
| مقاله 2، دوره 28، شماره 3، مهر 1400، صفحه 395-409 اصل مقاله (778.88 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijrdr.2021.125006 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| ژیلا قربانی* 1؛ کیومرث سفیدی2؛ مهشید سوری3؛ مهدی معمری4 | ||
| 1دانشآموخته کارشناسی ارشد مرتعداری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، ایران | ||
| 3استادیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 4استادیار، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| آگاهی از میزان و نحوه اثرپذیری پوشش گیاهی از اختلال چرای دام میتواند راهکاری برای تدوین راهبردهای مدیریت اکوسیستمهای مرتعی در جهت رسیدن به پایداری و تولید مستمر در این اکوسیستمها باشد. در این تحقیق به بررسی تولید اندامهای هوایی و زیرزمینی گونههای قابل چرای دام در مراتع جنوبشرقی سبلان تحت تأثیر شدتهای مختلف چرایی و فاصله از روستا بهعنوان کانون بحران پرداخته شد. بهعلاوه اینکه توسعه و ارزیابی مدل استنتاج فازی- عصبی (انفیس) بهمنظور پیشبینی تولید اندامهای هوایی و زیرزمینی گونههای خوشخوراک و مقایسه نتایج آن با مدل رگرسیونی ارائه گردید. برای ارزیابی مدلهای رگرسیونی و انفیس از مجذور میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) و ضریب همبستگی (R2) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که شدتهای مختلف چرا، فاصله از روستا و اثرهای متقابل آنها اثر معنیداری در سطح احتمال یک درصد بر تولید اندامهای هوایی و زیرزمینی گونههای خوشخوراک دارند. همچنین، با افزایش شدت چرا، تولید اندامهای هوایی و زیرزمینی این گونهها کاهش یافت. نتایج بخش انفیس نشان داد که در شدت چرای کم و فاصله حدود 400 متر، بیشترین مقدار تولید گونههای خوشخوراک ملاحظه میگردد. کمترین مقدار تولید این گونهها نیز فواصل نزدیک به روستا (200 متری) پیشبینی شده است. بیشترین میزان زیتوده ریشه در فاصله 600 متری و کمترین میزان زیتوده ریشه نیز مربوط به فاصله 200 متری بود. بهعلاوه، مدل ANFIS با دقت بالاتر (98/0R2= و 95/0R2=) و خطای کمتر (9792/0RMSE= و 6168/1RMSE=) نسبت به مدل کم دقتتر رگرسیونی (92/0R2= و 77/0R2=) که خطای بیشتری نیز داشت (2835/2RMSE= و 8954/3RMSE=)، بهترتیب تولید اندامهای هوایی و زیرزمینی را پیشبینی نمود. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| شدت چرا؛ هوش محاسباتی؛ مدلسازی؛ تولید | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Predicting the biomass of aerial and underground parts of palatability species caused by grazing using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| zhila ghorbani1؛ Kiumars Sefidi2؛ Mahshid Souri3؛ Mehdi Moameri4 | ||
| 1Former M.Sc. Student in Range Management, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Professor, Department of Forest Management, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran | ||
| 3Research Assistant Professor, Range Research department, Research institute of forest and rangeland, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 4Assistant Professor of University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Awareness of the extent and impact of vegetation from livestock grazing disorders can be a solution to develop rangeland ecosystem management strategies to achieve sustainability and continuous production in these ecosystems. In this study, the production of aerial and underground organs of grazable livestock species in the southeastern rangelands of Sabalan under the influence of different grazing intensities and distance from the village as the focus of the crisis was investigated. In addition, the development and evaluation of ANFIS model was presented in order to predict the production of aerial and underground organs of food species and compare the results with the regression model. For evaluation of regression and ANFIS models the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R2) were used. The results showed that different grazing intensities, distance from village and interaction between them were significant effect on the production of aerial and underground organs of palatability species at (p≤0.01). Also, with increasing grazing intensity, the production of aerial and underground organs of these species decreased. The results of ANFIS section showed that in low grazing intensity and distance of about 400 meters, the highest amount of production of palatable species is observed. The lowest production of these species is predicted to be close to the village (200 meters). Moreover, the highest amount of underground biomass at farther distances (600 meter) and lowest amount of that was observed at 200 meter. In addition, ANFIS model with higher accuracy (R2 = 0.98 and R2 = 0.95) and lower error (RMSE = 0.9792 and RMSE = 1.168) than less accurate regression model (R2 = 0.92 and R2 0.77) which also had more errors (RMSE = 2.2835 and RMSE = 3.8954), predicted the production of aerial and underground organs, respectively. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Grazing intensity, artificial intelligence, modelling, production | ||
| مراجع | ||
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