اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات284
تعداد نشریات سازمان82
تعداد شماره‌ها3,081
تعداد مقالات34,376
تعداد مشاهده مقاله47,985,217
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله78,918,284
عبدالشاه نژاد, مهسا, خسروی, حسن, نظری سامانی, علی اکبر, علم بیگی, امیر. (1401). شناسایی متغیرهای مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در برابر گردوغبار بر مبنای نظر خبرگان. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29(1), 36-52. doi: 10.22092/ijrdr.2022.126003
مهسا عبدالشاه نژاد; حسن خسروی; علی اکبر نظری سامانی; امیر علم بیگی. "شناسایی متغیرهای مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در برابر گردوغبار بر مبنای نظر خبرگان". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29, 1, 1401, 36-52. doi: 10.22092/ijrdr.2022.126003
عبدالشاه نژاد, مهسا, خسروی, حسن, نظری سامانی, علی اکبر, علم بیگی, امیر. (1401). 'شناسایی متغیرهای مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در برابر گردوغبار بر مبنای نظر خبرگان', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 29(1), pp. 36-52. doi: 10.22092/ijrdr.2022.126003
عبدالشاه نژاد, مهسا, خسروی, حسن, نظری سامانی, علی اکبر, علم بیگی, امیر. شناسایی متغیرهای مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در برابر گردوغبار بر مبنای نظر خبرگان. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1401; 29(1): 36-52. doi: 10.22092/ijrdr.2022.126003

شناسایی متغیرهای مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در برابر گردوغبار بر مبنای نظر خبرگان

تحقیقات مرتع و بیابان ایران
مقاله 5، دوره 29، شماره 1، فروردین 1401، صفحه 36-52    اصل مقاله (983.21 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijrdr.2022.126003
نویسندگان
مهسا عبدالشاه نژاد1؛ حسن خسروی* 2؛ علی اکبر نظری سامانی2؛ امیر علم بیگی3
1دانشجوی دکتری بیابان‌زدایی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران
2دانشیار، گروه احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
3استادیار، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
چکیده
اهمیت توجه به توسعه پایدار و امنیت زیستی در مناطق تحت‌تأثیر فاجعه‌های زیست‌محیطی هم‌چون طوفان‌های گردوغبار، نیاز به روش‌های نوین برای یافتن راهبردهای مقابله را بیشتر کرده است. بدین منظور تحلیل ساختاری متقاطع، ابزاری کارآمد برای مطالعه رفتار سیستم است. با استناد به نتایج حاصل از تحلیل ساختاری و رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌توان راهبردهایی جهت حفظ پایداری در مناطق تحت تأثیر ریسک زیاد گردوغبار ارائه داد. روش این پژوهش باتوجه به هدف آن، از نوع کاربردی و براساس رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌باشد. جامعه نمونه پژوهش از 22 نفر از کارشناسان و مدیران مطلع در حوزه امور کشاورزی و گردوغبار تشکیل شده است. براساس اطلاعات جمع‌آوری شده از مرحله مصاحبه به روش نیمه ساختار‌یافته، عوامل مؤثر شناسایی شد. براساس نظر کارشناسان و خبرگان عوامل نهایی استخراج و یک ماتریس 26×26 طراحی شد. سپس ماتریس اثر متقابل تهیه شده، توسط خبرگان امتیازدهی شد. به منظور تعیین عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری جوامع کشاورز تحت تأثیر گردوغبار در شهرستان اهواز، رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار MICMAC در قالب سه گروه مؤلفه اقتصادی، اجتماعی و طبیعی-فیزیکی براساس 26 شاخص انجام شد. متغیرهای پژوهش در سه طبقه دو‌وجهی، تنظیمی و مستقل براساس میزان رابطه تأثیرپذیری و تأثیرگذاری‌شان تقسیم‌بندی شدند. عوامل کلیدی شامل «تغییر کمیت و کیفیت محصولات کشاورزی، کاهش درآمد و آسیب به سرمایه کشاورزان، تشدید فقر و بیکاری، دسترسی به اعتبارات مالی، معیشت جایگزین و مهاجرت» می‌باشند. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان داد که سیستم مورد مطالعه از نوع ناپایدار بوده و به‌منظور اتخاذ تصمیم‌های مدیریتی و افزایش پایداری نیاز به توسعه راهبردهایی بر مبنای عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کشاورزان می‌باشد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
آینده‌پژوهی؛ تحلیل ساختاری؛ گردوغبار؛ تاب‌آوری؛ MICMAC
عنوان مقاله [English]
Identification of variables affecting farmer’s resilience to dust based on expert opinion
نویسندگان [English]
MAHSA abdolshahnejad1؛ Hassan Khosravi2؛ Aliakbar Nazari Samani2؛ Amir Alambeigi3
1PhD Student of Combating Desertification, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tehran University, Iran
2Associate Professor, Department of Rehabilitation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tehran University, Iran
3Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension & Education, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, Tehran University, Iran
چکیده [English]
The importance of paying attention to sustainable development and biosafety in areas that effected by an environmental disaster such as dust storms has increased the need for new methods to find coping strategies. For this purpose, cross-structural analysis is an effective tool for studying system behavior. Based on the results of structural analysis and future study approaches, stability strategies can be proposed in the affected area by high-risk dust. The method of the research is according to the applied and future study approach. The sample population of this research was composed of 22 experts and managers in the field of agriculture and dust. Based on collecting data through expert interview and brainstorming method, the effective drivers were identified. According to the opinion of experts, the final drivers were extracted as a 26 × 26 matrix. Then, the cross-impact matrix was scored by experts. To determine the key drivers affecting the resilience of farming communities affected by dust in Ahvaz County, the future research approach was performed using MICMAC software in three groups of economic, social, and natural-physical components and 26 indicators. Research variables were divided into three categories »key, Independent and Regulative« based on the degree of relationship between influence and dependence. Key drivers include »Change of Quality and Quantity of Agricultural Products, Income Risk, Unemployment and Poverty Rise, Access to Financial Credits, Alternative livelihood and Immigration«. The results showed that the system of this study is unstable and in order to make management decisions and increase sustainability, it is necessary to develop strategies based on key drivers affecting farmer’s resilience.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Future study, Structure analysis, Dust, Resilience, MICMAC
مراجع
  • Adger, W. N., Brooks, N., Bentham, G., Agnew, M. and Eriksen, S., 2005. New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
  • Ahmad, M., Tang, X. W., Qiu, J. N. and Ahmad, F., 2019. Interpretive structural modeling and MICMAC. Analysis for identifying and benchmarking significant factors of seismic soil Liquefaction. Journal of Applied Sciences, 9 (2): 233.
  • Ahsan, M. N. and Warner, J., 2014. The socioeconomic vulnerability index: A pragmatic approach for assessing climate change led risks–A case study in the south-western coastal Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 8: 32-49.
  • Akbarian ronizi, S. R. and Ramezanzadeh Lasboyee, M., 2019. Farmers’ resilience against drought with an emphasis on economic factors and social capital in rural areas: a case study of Roniz in Estahban County. Journal of Rural Research, 10 (2): 230-243.
  • Alibeygi, J., Jalalian, H., Azizpour, F. and Mahdizadeh, H., 2019. Preparing the map of main drivers for the strategic future study of the effects of the implementation of the arid areas project on Mehran and Godarkhosh plains in line with planning management. Journal of Strategic Management Research, 24 (70): 145-167 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Alizadeh-Choobari, O., Ghafarian, P. and Owlad, E., 2016. Temporal variations in the frequency and concentration of dust events over Iran based on surface observations. International Journal of Climatology, 36(4): 2050–2062.
  • Antwi, E.K., Boakye-Danquah, J., Owusu, A. B., Loh, S.K., Mensah, R., Boafo, Y.A. and Apronti, P.T., 2015. Community vulnerability assessment index for flood prone savannah agro-ecological zone: A case study of Wa West District, Ghana. Weather and Climate Extremes, 10: 56-69.
  • Arcade, J., Godet, M., Meunier, F. and Roubelat, F., 2003.Structral Analysis, “Structural analysis with the MICMAC method & Actors' strategy with MACTOR method”, CD ROM, the Millennium Project, Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective and Strategy (LIPS).
  • Arthi, V., 2014. The dust was long in settling: Human capital and the lasting impact of the American Dust Bowl. Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History, University of Oxford, 129.
  • Asan, S.S. and Asan, U., 2007. Qualitative cross-impact analysis with time consideration. Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74 (5): 627-644.
  • Ashrafi, K., Fallah, R., Hadei, M., Yarahmadi, M., and Shahsavani, A., 2018. Source apportionment of total suspended particles (TSP) by positive matrix factorization (PMF) and chemical mass balance (CMB) modeling in Ahvaz, Iran. Archives of environmental contamination and toxicology, 75(2): 278-294.
  • Azmi, A., Mohammadi, S., Lotfi, F. and Moradi, A., 2016. Economic and social Effects of dusts on Citizenship of Kermanshah. Nivar, 40 (94-95): 35-44.
  • Brown, P.R., Bridle, K.L. and Crimp, S.J., 2016. Assessing the capacity of Australian broadacre mixed farmers to adapt to climate change: Identifying constraints and opportunities. Journal of Agricultural Systems, 146: 129-141.
  • Chandramowli, S., Transue, M. and Felder, F., 2011. Analysis of barriers to development in landfill communities using interpretive structural modeling. Journal of Habitat International, 35 (2): 246–253.
  • Cutter, S.L., Boruff, B.J. and Shirley, W.L., 2003. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social science quarterly, 84 (2): 242-261.
  • Darkow, I.L., 2015. The involvement of middle management in strategy development- Development and implementation of a foresight-based approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101: 10-24.
  • Dube, T. and Phiri, K., 2013. Rural livelihoods under stress: The impact of climate change on livelihoods in South Western Zimbabwe. American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 3 (5):11-25.
  • Esmailnejad, M. and Pudineh, M., 2017. Evaluation of adaptation to climate change in rural areas south of South Khorasan. Journal of Natural Environmental Hazards, 6 (11): 85-100 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Fazelnia, G. and Jahantigh, H., 2020. Investigating the factors affecting the development of tourism in Sistan region by future studies approach. Journal of Future Cities Vision, 1 (2): 81-95 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Gandhi, A., 2015. Critical success factors in ERP Implementation and their interrelationship using TISM and MICMAC analysis. Indian Journal of Science and Technology, 8 (S6): 138–150.
  • Gerivani, H., Lashkaripour, G.R., Ghafoori, M. and Jalali, N., 2011. The source of dust storm in Iran: a case study based on geological information and rainfall data. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 6(1): 297-308.
  • Godet, M., 1991. From Anticipation to Action. UNESCO, Paris.
  • Heidarzadeh Dehkordi, M., Ahmadi, H. and Azimi, N.D., 2018. Identifying key factors affecting sustainable tourism development with a future study approach (case study: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province). Third National Conference of Architecture and Sustainable City. Tehran (In Persian).
  • Hooman, H. A., Handbook on Dissertation Writing. Peyk-e Farhang press, Tehran, 161p (In Persian).
  • https://www.mpo-kz.ir/amayeshb2/ (In Persian).
  • Jiménez, M., 2009. Herramientas para el análisis prospectivo estratégico. Aplicaciones MICMAC [Tools for strategic prospective analysis. Applications MICMAC. Estado de México: Hersa Ediciones.
  • Maleki, M.H. and Fathi, M.R., Future study of decision models in business using scenario planning approach. Journal of Management Futures Research, 28 (108): 33-50 (In Persian).
  • Mohammadi, P., Analysis of adaptation capacity of rural communities in the face of climate change (Study area: Qasrshirin city). 13th National Conference Watershed Management and Engineering of Iran. Ardabil (In Persian).
  • Mojica, F., 2005. La construcción del futuro. Concepto y modelo de prospectiva estratégica, territorial y tecnológica [Future construction. Concept and model of strategic, territorial and technology foresight]. Santafé de Bogotá: Universidad Externado de Colombia.
  • Ofoegbu, C., Chirwa, P.W., Francis, J. and Babalola, F.D., 2016. Assessing forest-based rural communities' adaptive capacity and coping strategies for climate variability and change: The case of Vhembe district in South Africa. Journal of Environmental Development, 18: 36-51.
  • Omran, A., Khorish, M. and Saleh, M., 2014. Structural analysis with knowledge-based MICMAC approach. International Journal of Computer Applications, 86 (5): 256-268.
  • Podineh, M.R., Toulabinezhad, M. and Hosienjani, A., 2017. Study of socio-economic factors influencing on adaptation of smallholder farmers to climate change in mountainous areas (Case study: Malavi Dehestan of Poldokhtar County). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 6 (19): 169-184 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Pramesti, I.G.A.A. and Putra, G.B.B., 2020. Identification of Key variables in the existence of prima dana mandiri cooperatives through the application of the MICMAC method. International Journal of Accounting & Finance in Asia Pasific (IJAFAP), 3 (1): 1-7.
  • Rabani, T., 2012. Approach Future Studies and strategic thinking in development urban planning (case study: city of Baneh). Master thesis in geography and urban planning, University of Tehran (In Persian).
  • Rahnama, M., Shakarami, K. and Abbasi, H., 2018. Identifying and analyzing the influence of driving forces on the regional development of Alborz Province with the scenario-based planning approach. Town and Country Planning, 10 (1): 139-166 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Ranjbar, H., Bazgir, M., Namdar Khojasteh, D. and Rostaminia, M., 2019. Identification of dust sources in Ilam province. Iranian Journal of Rangeland and Desert Research, 26 (3): 675-688 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Rayegani, B., Barati Ghahfarokhi, S. and Khoshnava, A., 2019. Dust and sand source identification using remotely sensed data: a comprehensive approach. Journal of Range and Watershed Management, 72 (1): 83-105 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Razzaghi Borkhani, F., Rezvanfar, A., Movahed Mohammadi, S.H. and Hejazi, S.Y., 2017. Mechanisms of reducing natural disasters and risk management to the sustainable of citrus gardens in Mazandaran Province. Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards, 4 (3): 35-52 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Roknedin Eftekhari, A., Moosavi, S.M., Pourtaheri, M. and Farajzadeh Asl, M., 2014. Analysis of the role of livelihood diversity to rural household resilience in drought condition (Case study of the drought exposed areas of Isfahan Province). Journal of Rural Research Quarterly, 3 (5): 662-639 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Sadeghloo, T. and Sojasi Gheidari, H., Prioritization of effective factors on increasing resilience of farmers to natural hazard (with emphasis on drought). Study area: farmers of the villages of Ijrud County. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 10: 129-153 (In Persian).
  • Sarabian, L. and Nikpoor, A., 2011. Challenges and estimation of losses caused by dust phenomenon in the agricultural sector. The second National Conference on Wind Erosion. Yazd (In Persian).
  • Saxena, J.P. and Vrat, P., 1990. Impact of Indirect relationships in classification of variables—A MICMAC analysis for energy conservation. Journal of Systems Research, 7 (4): 245–253.
  • Shahsavani, A., Naddafi, K., Jafarzade Haghighifard, N., Mesdaghinia, A., Yunesian, M., Nabizadeh, R., Arahami, M., Sowlat, M. H., Yarahmadi, M., Saki, H., Alimohamadi, M., Nazmara, S., Motevalian, S. A. and Goudarzi, G., 2012. The evaluation of PM10, PM2. 5, and PM1 concentrations during the Middle Eastern Dust (MED) events in Ahvaz, Iran, from april through september 2010. Journal of Arid Environments, 77: 72-83.
  • Srivastava, S. and Dubey, R., 2014. Supply chain skill gap modelling using interpretive structural modelling and MICMAC analysis. International Journal of Operations and Quantitative Management, 20 (1): 33-47.
  • Taleshi, M. and Seyed Akhlaghi, S., 2019. Role of livelihood diversity in rural household’s resilience against drought risk (Case study: Hablehroud Basin). Iranian Journal of Rangeland and Desert Research, 26 (2): 459-473 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Taleshi, M., Aliakbari, E., Jafari, M. and Seyed Akhlaghi, S., 2017. Developing and validating of appropriate indices for rural resilience to draught (Case Study: Hableroud Watershed Basine). Iranian Journal of Rangeland and Desert Research, 24 (4): 881-896 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Yohe, G. and Tol, R.S.J., 2002. Indicators for social and economic coping capacity-moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 12 (1): 25–40.
  • Zali, N. and Zamanipoor, M., 2015. Systematic analysis of strategic variables of regional development in scenario- based planning (Case: Mazandaran Province). Journal of Town and Country Planning, 7 (1): 1-28 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Ziparo, A. and Asadzadeh, H., 2020. Futures studies of regional spatial structure in Iran (Horizon 2040). Journal of Future Cities Vision, 1 (1): 37-55 (In Persian with English summary).
  • Zoghipour, M.H., Gholizadeh, H., Nazari, M.H. and Moradkhani, N., 2019. Evaluation of the dust phenomenon effect and climatic variables on the welfare of maize farmers in Khuzestan Province. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 50 (1): 109-121 (In Persian with English summary).
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 760
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 525


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. طراحی و پیاده سازی از سیناوب