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صدیق, نوید, هاشمی داران, حسن, چلاجور, محمد. (1402). آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در بخش کشاورزی جنوب استان کرمان با استفاده از مدل ریکاردین: مطالعة موردی گندم. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31(2), 75-110. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.359375.1454
نوید صدیق; حسن هاشمی داران; محمد چلاجور. "آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در بخش کشاورزی جنوب استان کرمان با استفاده از مدل ریکاردین: مطالعة موردی گندم". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31, 2, 1402, 75-110. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.359375.1454
صدیق, نوید, هاشمی داران, حسن, چلاجور, محمد. (1402). 'آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در بخش کشاورزی جنوب استان کرمان با استفاده از مدل ریکاردین: مطالعة موردی گندم', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31(2), pp. 75-110. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.359375.1454
صدیق, نوید, هاشمی داران, حسن, چلاجور, محمد. آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در بخش کشاورزی جنوب استان کرمان با استفاده از مدل ریکاردین: مطالعة موردی گندم. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1402; 31(2): 75-110. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.359375.1454

آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در بخش کشاورزی جنوب استان کرمان با استفاده از مدل ریکاردین: مطالعة موردی گندم

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 4، دوره 31، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 122، مهر 1402، صفحه 75-110    اصل مقاله (604.33 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2023.359375.1454
نویسندگان
نوید صدیق* 1؛ حسن هاشمی داران2؛ محمد چلاجور3
1نویسندة مسئول و دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد رودهن، تهران، ایران.
2استادیار دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد رودهن، تهران، ایران
3استادیار دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد رودهن، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
تغییر اقلیم از مهم‏ترین چالش­‌های قرن جاری است که به‏‌دلیل افزایش استفاده از سوخت‌های فسیلی، مقدار گازهای گلخانه‌‏ای­ زیاد شده و به گرم شدن کره­ زمین و ایجاد پدیده تغییر اقلیم انجامیده است. مطالعه حاضر، با هدف بررسی آسیب‌­پذیری اقتصادی ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی در بخش کشاورزی جنوب استان کرمان در دوره 1398-1370، به‌‏صورت پانل و با استفاده از روش ریکاردین انجام گرفت. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که متغیرهای اقلیمی آثار معنی‌‏دار و غیرخطی بر درآمد خالص به ازای هر هکتار کشت گندم دارند؛ همچنین، افزایش دما و کاهش بارندگی تا صد سال آینده، باعث 41 درصد کاهش در بازده کشت گندم در منطقه مورد مطالعه می‏‌شود و میزان درآمد متوسط سالانه هر هکتار کشت گندم 64 میلیون ریال کاهش می‌یابد. از آنجا که سطح زیر کشت گندم در منطقه جنوب کرمان در سال زراعی 1398 حدود 38658 هکتار است، می‌توان نتیجه گرفت که در صورت ثابت بودن سطح زیر کشت، سالانه 2469 هزار میلیارد ریال از درآمد خالص در هکتار (رانت) زمین‌های یادشده کاسته می‏‌شود و از این‌‏رو، تغییرات شدید در عرصه تولید و الگوی کشت به‌‏وقوع خواهد پیوست. نتایج مطالعة حاضر و آمار مربوط نشان داد که آسیب‌­پذیری شدید اقتصادی در این منطقه متوجه کشاورزان و اقتصاد منطقه و حتی کشور خواهد بود. نظر به اجتناب­‌ناپذیر و قریب‌­الوقوع بودن گرم شدن زمین، لازم است که از هم‌‏اکنون، تدابیری در راستای بررسی بیشتر مسئله، کاهش مصرف سوخت­‌های فسیلی، اصلاح الگوی کشت و جلوگیری از خسارات ناشی از تغییر اقلیم برای کشاورزان منطقه جنوب کرمان اتخاذ شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی؛ تغییرات اقلیمی؛ جنوب استان کرمان؛ روش ریکاردین؛ کشاورزی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Economic Vulnerability Originating from Climate Change in Agriculture Sector in the South of Kerman Province of Iran Using Ricardian Model: A Case Study of Wheat
نویسندگان [English]
navid sedigh1؛ Hasan Hashemidaran2؛ Mohammad Chalajour3
1Corresponding Author and PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Rudehen Branch, Tehran, Iran
2Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Islamic Azad University, Rudehen Branch, Tehran, Iran
3Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Islamic Azad University, Rudehen Branch, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Introduction: Climate change is one of the most important challenges of the current century. Due to the increase in the use of fossil fuels, the amount of greenhouse gases has increased, and this has caused global warming and the phenomenon of climate change. One of the effects of the climate change phenomenon is the damage caused in the agricultural sector, and due to the change in the precipitation pattern and the average temperature of the atmosphere, this phenomenon can cause damage to the productions of all kinds of garden and agricultural products that constitute the main food resources of the country.
Methodology: This study aimed at investigating the economic vulnerability caused by climate change in the agricultural sector of the south of Kerman province in Iran as well as examining the effect of these factors on the cultivation of wheat in this area over the period of 1991-2019 in the form of panel data. Eviews 9 software package was used to estimate the desired models and perform related tests. The effect of climatic variables on wheat crop was investigated using the meteorological data of the stations located in the southern cities of Kerman province. In addition, this study used panel (composite) data in the Ricardian model.
Findings and Results: The study results showed that climatic variables had significant and non-linear effects on net income per hectare of wheat cultivation; also, the increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the next 100 years would cause a 41 percent decrease in the yield of wheat cultivation in the studied area, and the average annual income of each hectare of wheat cultivation would decrease by 64 million IRI rials and given a constant area under cultivation, 2469 thousand billion IRI rials would be reduced from the rent of the mentioned lands. Therefore, there will be drastic changes in the production and cultivation pattern.
Conclusion: The results of this study and related statistics showed that severe economic vulnerability in this region would affect the farmers and the economy of the region and even the country. Considering the inevitability of global warming, it is necessary to take measures from now on to further investigate the issue, reduce fossil fuel consumption, modify the cultivation patterns, and prevent damages caused by climate change for farmers in the southern region of Kerman province.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Economic Vulnerability, Climate Change, South of Kerman Province, Ricardian Method, Agriculture
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