اخبار و اعلانات

 آمار

تعداد نشریات286
تعداد نشریات سازمان84
تعداد شماره‌ها2,838
تعداد مقالات32,211
تعداد مشاهده مقاله41,115,941
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله18,356,056
رجبعلی نژاد, عبداله, نوذری, نیو, رحیمی بدر, بیتا. (1402). اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی و نقش تحریم‌ها در میزان تولیدات زراعی ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31(2), 157-184. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469
عبداله رجبعلی نژاد; نیو نوذری; بیتا رحیمی بدر. "اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی و نقش تحریم‌ها در میزان تولیدات زراعی ایران". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31, 2, 1402, 157-184. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469
رجبعلی نژاد, عبداله, نوذری, نیو, رحیمی بدر, بیتا. (1402). 'اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی و نقش تحریم‌ها در میزان تولیدات زراعی ایران', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31(2), pp. 157-184. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469
رجبعلی نژاد, عبداله, نوذری, نیو, رحیمی بدر, بیتا. اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی و نقش تحریم‌ها در میزان تولیدات زراعی ایران. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1402; 31(2): 157-184. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469

اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی و نقش تحریم‌ها در میزان تولیدات زراعی ایران

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 7، دوره 31، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 122، مهر 1402، صفحه 157-184    اصل مقاله (719.42 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2023.360203.1469
نویسندگان
عبداله رجبعلی نژاد1؛ نیو نوذری* 2؛ بیتا رحیمی بدر3
1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران.
2نویسندة مسئول و استادیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران.
3استادیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران.
چکیده
در سال‌­های اخیر، موضوع تغییرات آب‏وهوایی ناشی از گرمایش زمین به یک نگرانی عمده و چالش مهم در سراسر جهان مبدل شده، که نیازمند اقدام جامع و متقابل است؛ و در این میان، کشاورزی وابسته‌­ترین بخش به اقلیم به‌‏شمار می‏‌رود. ایران، با توجه به اقلیم گرم­‌وخشک آن، در خطر آسیب‌­های جهانی این تغییرات بوده و تحریم‌­های همه‏‌جانبه­ نیز بر بخش کشاورزی تأثیر داشته است. در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از مدل اقتصادسنجی حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملاً اصلاح‏‌شده (FMOLS)، به بررسی اثرات متغیرهای اقلیمی دما و بارش و میزان انتشار دی‌­اکسیدکربن (2CO) به‌‏همراه اثر تحریم بر کل تولیدات زراعی ایران طی سال­‌های 1350 تا 1398 پرداخته و از متغیرهای کود شیمیایی و سطح زیر کشت و همچنین، از سرمایه ثابت در ماشین‌‏آلات بخش کشاورزی به‏‌عنوان شاخصی از فناوری استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که همه متغیرها اثر معنی‌­دار بر تولید داشته­‌اند و همچنین، متغیر اقلیمیِ متوسطِ دمای سالانه و مجموع بارش سالانه ارتباط غیرخطی با تولید پیدا کرده و معنی‌­داری آن به‌‏صورت U معکوس است. افزون بر این، متغیرهای کود و سطح زیر کشت اثر مثبت و متغیرهای دی­‌اکسید کربن (2CO) و اثر تحریم رابطه منفی بر کل تولیدات زراعی ایران داشته‌‏اند. از یافته‌­های پژوهش حاضر می‌‏توان در ارائه برنامه­‌های راهبردی برای سیاست‏گذاران در مواجه با تغییرات اقلیمی سود جست که از آن میان، بر پایة پیشنهادهای پژوهش حاضر، دولت می‏‌تواند به سرمایه‏‌گذاری بیشتر در مکانیزاسیون بخش کشاورزی و اعطای تسهیلات و اعتبارات با اولویت آموزش کشاورزان و نیز استفاده از ارقام و واریته‌­های مقاوم به دما به‌‏صورت منطقه‌­ای در برابر پدیده تغییر اقلیم بپردازد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تغییر اقلیم؛ کل تولیدات زراعی؛ تحریم؛ اقتصاد کشاورزی؛ ایران؛ دی‏اکسید کربن (2CO)
عنوان مقاله [English]
The Effect of Climatic Variables and the Role of Sanctions in Agricultural Production
نویسندگان [English]
Abdollah Rajabali Nejad1؛ niv nozari2؛ Bita Rahimi Badr3
1PhD Student in Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.
2Corresponding Author and Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran
3Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Introduction: Over the last fifty years, on average, the world has seen one incident per day related to climate change, climate and water hazards, and the number of disasters and natural disasters around the world has increased fivefold. The agricultural sector is the most dependent on the climate, and climate changes in Iran with a hot and dry climate have had significant impacts on agricultural production systems.
Materials and methods : In this study, using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) model of econometric method, the effects of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation and the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions along with the effect of the sanctions on the total agricultural production of Iran during 1971-2019 and the variables of chemical fertilizer and cultivated area as well as the fixed capital in the machinery of the agricultural sector as an indicator of technology were investigated. According to the definition of climate change, which is a change in weather conditions over a period of time, using the FMOLS model can be beneficial in investigating this phenomenon.
Results and Discussion: According to the results of this model, the concerned variables had significant relations with production. The climatic variable of average annual temperature had a non-linear relationship in the form of an inverted U with production. Similarly, the precipitation variable was found to have a non-linear, curve-shaped relationship with production. The physical variables of cultivated area, fertilizer, and production interruption had direct relations with the production. The CO2 variable and the livestock variable of the sanctions had negative effects on the agricultural production of the country.
Conclusion: Considering the phenomenon of climate change and global warming, and the results of this research confirming the effectiveness of production in relation to climate variables (temperature and precipitation), the use of temperature-resistant cultivars and varieties is recommended as a useful and effective way of dealing with climate change. The sanctions variable had a negative effect on the agricultural production of the country, highlighting the importance of the effect of sanctions on the amount of agricultural production and its role in food security.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
Agricultural Economics, Climate Change, Sanctions, Iran, CO2
مراجع
  • Alagidede, P., Adu, G. and Frimpong, P.B. (2014). The effect of climate change on economic growth, evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER) Working Paper 2014/017, Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. Available at https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2014/738-7.
  • Alam, Q. (2013). Climate change, agricultural productivity and economic growth in India: the bounds test analysis. International Journal of Applied Research and Studies, 2(11): 1-14.
  • Alijani, F., Karbasi, A.R. and Mozafari Masan, M. (2012). Investigating the effect of temperature and rainfall on the yield of water wheat in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 19(76): 143-166. (Persian)
  • Amirnejad, H. and Asadpour Kordi, M. (2017). Investigating the effects of climate change on wheat production in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 9(35): 163-182. (Persian)
  • Attavanich, W. and McCarl, B. (2011). The effect of climate change, CO2 fertilization, and crop production technology on crop yields and its economic implications on market outcomes and welfare distribution. 2011 Annual Meeting, 24-26 July, 2011.
  • Badalzadeh, A. and Danesh Shahraki, A.R. (2014). Effects of climate change on agriculture and horticulture. National Conference on Climate Change and Engineering for Sustainable Development of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Hamedan. Available at https://civilica.com/doc/282314/. (Persian)
  • Ben Zaied, Y. (2013). Long run versus short run analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. University of Rennes, Economic Research Forum Working Papers, 808.
  • Benhin, J.K.A. (2008). South African crop farming and climate change: an economic assessment of impacts. Global Environmental Change, 18: 666-678.
  • Benlloch-Gonzalez, M., Bochicchio, R. and Berger, J. (2014). High temperature reduces the positive effect of elevated CO2 on wheat root system growth. Field Crops Research, 165: 71-79.
  • Chen, Sh., Chen, X. and Xu, J. (2015). Impacts of climate change on agriculture: evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 76: 105-124. DOI: 1016/j.jeem.2015.01.005.
  • Dasgubta, P., Bhattacharjee, D. and Kumari, A. (2013). Socio-economic analysis of change impact on food grain production in Indian States. Environment development, 8: 5-21.
  • Dehmardeh, N., Safdari, M. and Shahiki Tash, M. (2010). The effect of macro indicators on income distribution in Iran (1974-2007). Commercial Research Quarterly, 14(54): 25-55. (Persian)
  • FAO (2012). How to feed the world in 2050. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Available at https://www.fao.org/How_to_Feed_the_World_in_2050.pdf.
  • FAO (2022).  FAO strategic framework. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Available at https://www.fao.org/about/strategy-programme-budget/strategic-framework/en/.
  • Gornall, J., Betts, R., Burke, E., Robin, C., Joanne, C., Kate, W. and Wiltshire, A. (2010). Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 365(1554).
  • Guo, Y., Wu, Y., Wen, B., Huang, W., Ju, K., Gao, Y. and Li, S. (2020). Floods in China, COVID-19, and climate change. Lancet Planet Health, 4(10): e443-e444. DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30203-5.
  • Hoseini, S.S., Nazari, M.R. and Araghinejad, Sh. (2013). Investigating the impacts of climate on agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 44(1): 1-16. DOI: 10.22059/ijaedr.2013.36064. (Persian)
  • IMF (2019). IMF annual report 2019. Washington D.C.: The International Monetary Fund (IMF). Available at http//www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ar/2019/eng/index.htm.
  • IPCC (2007). The definition of climate change. Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf.
  • Janjua, P.Z., Samad, G. and Khan, N. (2014). Climate change and wheat production in Pakistan: An autoregressive distributed lag approach. NJAS-Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 68(1): 13-19. DOI: 10.1016/j.njas.2013.11.002.
  • Jayatilleke, S.B. and Yiyong, C. (2014). The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 44: 451-465.
  • Kao, C. and Chiang, M.H. (2000). On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data. Advances Econometrics, 15: 179-222.
  • Khaleghi, S., Bazzazan, F. and Madani, Sh. (2015). The effect of climate change on the production of the agricultural sector and on Iran's economy (social accounting matrix approach). Agricultural Economics Research, 7(25): 113-135. (Persian)
  • Khanal, A.R., Mishra, A.K. and Bhattarai, M. (2014). Weather risk and cropping intensity: a non-stationary and dynamic panel modeling approach. 2014 Annual Meeting, 27-29 July, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota170603, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Koocheki, A., Nasiri Mahalati, M. and Jafari, L. (2015). Evaluation of climate change effect on agricultural production of Iran: 1. Predicting the future agroclimatic conditions. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research, 13(4): 651-664. DOI: 10.22067/gsc.v13i4.51156. (Persian)
  • Linnenluecke, M.K., Nucifora, N. and Thompson, N. (2018). Implications of climate change for the sugarcane industry. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 9(1): e498.
  • Madani, K. (2021). Have international sanctions impacted Iran’s environment? World, 2(2): 231-252.
  • Mahato, A. (2014). Climate change and its impact on agriculture. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 4(4): 1-6.
  • MAJ (2020). The role of the agricultural sector in increasing resilience against sanctions and enhancing Iran's economic growth. Tehran: Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ). Available at https://dolat.ir/detail/341383. (Persian)
  • Mehralizadeh, Y., Hashemi, L. and Heybatolahpour, Z. (2020). Report on dealing with the sanction of sugarcane development companies and related industries. Industrial Management Organization, Khuzestan Representative Office.
  • Momeni, S. and Zibaei M. (2013). Potential effects of climate change on agriculture in Fars province. Agricultural Economics and Development (Agricultural Sciences and Industries), 27(3): 169-179. DOI:  22067/JEAD2.V0I0.29418. (Persian)
  • Nofarsti, M. and Sezavar, M. (2021). Development of a macro econometric model with different frequency composite data in order to evaluate the effect of sanctions imposed on Iran's economy. Econometric Modeling, 6(1): 131-161. (Persian)
  • Onoja, A. and Achike, A.I. (2014). Effects of climate change, poverty and macroeconomic policies on agricultural trade performance in Nigeria. British Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 4: 66-82.
  • Phillips, P.C. and Hansen, B.E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1): 99-125.
  • Rahimi, J., Malekian, A. and Khalili, A. (2019). Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135: 545-564. (Persian)
  • Rajabalinejad, A. (2023). "Environmental Diplomacy and Climate Change (Integral view for Sustainable policymaker)". Foreign Policy Quarterly: 2-2023.
  • Rehman, A., Ma, H., Ozturk, I. and Ahmad, M.I. (2022). Examining the carbon emissions and climate impacts on main agricultural crops production and land use: updated evidence from Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(1): 868-882.
  • Salehi Komroudi, M. and Shakeri Bostanabad, R. (2019). The impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security in East Azarbaijan province. Journal of Environmental Science Studies, 4(3): 1801-1809. (Persian)
  • Sivakumar, M. (2021). Climate change, agriculture adaptation, and sustainability. In: Climate resilience and environmental sustainability approaches, pp. 87-109, Springer. DOI: 1007/978-981-16-0902-2_6.
  • Soleimaninejad, S., Dourandish, A. and Nikookar, A. (2016). Identifying the economic and climatic factors affecting the added value of Iran's agricultural sector. The 10th Biennial Conference on Agricultural Economics of Iran, 11 May, 2016, Kerman Advanced Technology Graduate University. (Persian)
  • Sultana, H., Ali, N., Iqbal, M. and Khan, A.M. (2009). Vulnerability and adaptability wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change. Climatic Change, 94: 123-142.
  • Tokunaga, S., Okiyama, M. and Ikegawa, M. (2015). Dynamic panel data analysis of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Japan. Japan Agricultural Research Quarterly, 49(2): 149-157.
  • Wani, S.A., Mahdi, S.S., Samoon, S.A., Hassan, G. and Dar, S.A. (2020). Climate change-its impact on agriculture. Journal of Phytology, 2(10): 82-86.
  • WMO (2021). WMO: New climate report is a clarion call for urgent action. Available at https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-new-climate-report-clarion-call-urgent-action.
  • Zarakani, F., Kamali, G. and Chizari, A. (2014). The effect of climate change on the economy of rain fed wheat (a case study in Northern Khorasan). Journal Of Agroecology, 6(2): 301-310. DOI: 10.22067/jag.v6i2.39370. (Persian)
آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 563
تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 239


counter
سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی. قدرت گرفته از سیناوب