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کراری قره باغ, شبنم, نجفی علمدارلو, حامد, خلیلیان, صادق, دلاور, مجید. (1402). بررسی زراعی- اقتصادی تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب آبیاری در دشت ارومیه. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31(3), 89-130. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.362296.1517
شبنم کراری قره باغ; حامد نجفی علمدارلو; صادق خلیلیان; مجید دلاور. "بررسی زراعی- اقتصادی تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب آبیاری در دشت ارومیه". سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31, 3, 1402, 89-130. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.362296.1517
کراری قره باغ, شبنم, نجفی علمدارلو, حامد, خلیلیان, صادق, دلاور, مجید. (1402). 'بررسی زراعی- اقتصادی تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب آبیاری در دشت ارومیه', سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 31(3), pp. 89-130. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.362296.1517
کراری قره باغ, شبنم, نجفی علمدارلو, حامد, خلیلیان, صادق, دلاور, مجید. بررسی زراعی- اقتصادی تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب آبیاری در دشت ارومیه. سامانه مدیریت نشریات علمی, 1402; 31(3): 89-130. doi: 10.30490/aead.2023.362296.1517

بررسی زراعی- اقتصادی تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب آبیاری در دشت ارومیه

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
مقاله 4، دوره 31، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 123، آذر 1402، صفحه 89-130    اصل مقاله (735.03 K)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30490/aead.2023.362296.1517
نویسندگان
شبنم کراری قره باغ1؛ حامد نجفی علمدارلو* 2؛ صادق خلیلیان3؛ مجید دلاور4
1دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
2نویسندة مسئول و دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
3دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
4دانشیار گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
سطح آبخوان­‌ها، در نتیجة کاهش سطح آب دریاچة ارومیه، کاهش یافته و از سوی دیگر، نفوذ آب شور و نفوذ املاح مازاد به‏ ویژه نیترات ناشی از مصرف کودهای شیمیایی موجب کاهش کیفیت آب­های زیرزمینی در دشت ارومیه شده است. در مطالعة حاضر، با هدف بررسی زراعی- اقتصادی تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب آبیاری، به شبیه ‏سازی عملکرد محصولات گندم آبی، ذرت علوفه‌ای، آفتابگردان و گوجه­ فرنگی با استفاده از مدل آکواکراپ (AquaCrop) در سال زراعی 1401-1400 پرداخته و سپس، گزینه‌­های کم ­آبیاری، کاهش کوددهی و افزایش شوری آب زیرزمینی در تمامی مراحل رشد محصولات اعمال شد؛ همچنین، از چهار گروه داد­ه­‌های اقلیمی، گیاهی، خاک‌‏شناسی و مدیریتی برای انجام شبیه­‌سازی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که کاهش کوددهی بیشترین درصد تغییرات و افزایش شوری آب‏های آبیاری و زیرزمینی کمترین درصد تأثیر را روی عملکرد محصولات دارند. از آنجا که کاهش عملکرد محصولات با اثرات اقتصادی نیز همراه است، این اثرات با محاسبة شاخص‌­های بهره­‌وری فیزیکی و اقتصادی آب و کود نیتروژن بررسی شدند که از آن میان، شاخص بهره­‌وری اقتصادی آب و کود انتخاب شد و بر اساس آن، مقادیر حداکثر شاخص بهره­‌وری اقتصادی آب (بر حسب ریال بر مترمکعب) و شاخص بهره‌وری اقتصادی کود (بر حسب ریال بر کیلوگرم)، به­ ترتیب، برای گوجه ­فرنگی 209580 و 3005000 ریال و آفتابگردان 177630 و 2115720 ریال در منطقه پنج و ذرت علوفه ­ای 94900 و 1323500 ریال و گندم آبی 56620 و 454570 ریال در مناطق سه و شش بود. با توجه به تأثیر زیاد گزینة کاهش کوددهی و شاخص بهره­‌وری اقتصادی کود، باید امکان جایگزینی کودهای ارگانیک با کودهای نیتراته از نظر فنی و اقتصادی بررسی و قیمت بالا برای مصارف بیش از مقدار توصیه ‏شدة کودهای نیتراته تعیین شود. این سیاست‌ها برای کاهش شوری نیز موثرند، زیرا منبع اصلی شوری آب زیرزمینی کوددهی بی­‌رویه است. همچنین، پیشنهاد می‌­شود که فناوری­‌های مناسب آبیاری به کشاورزان شناسانده و الگوی کشت صحیح در منطقه ارائه شود. در نهایت، باید اقدامات سخت‌­گیرانة مدیریتی صورت گیرد تا هم‏زمان، از اثرات مخرب کوددهی زیاد و برداشت بی‌­رویه آب‏های سطحی و زیرزمینی جلوگیری شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
آلودگی نیترات؛ بهره وری؛ شوری؛ کم آبیاری؛ مدل آکواکراپ (AquaCrop)
عنوان مقاله [English]
Agro-Economic Survey on Quantitative and Qualitative Changes of Irrigation Water in Urmia Plain of Iran
نویسندگان [English]
Shabnam Karari1؛ Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo2؛ Sadegh Khalilian3؛ Majid Delavar4
1PhD Student in Agricultural Economics Departmet, Tarbiat Modares University.
2Corresponding Author and Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
4Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]
Introduction: The level of aquifers has decreased as a result of the decrease in the water level of Urmia Lake in Iran. In addition, the infiltration of both salt water and excess salts, especially nitrates, caused by the use of chemical fertilizers have reduced the quality of groundwater in Urmia plain. Saline waste water, return water, agricultural activities, evaporation and infiltration of sea water are among the salinity factors of water resources. On the other hand, in modern agriculture, the yield and productivity of the product is improved by the use of chemical fertilizers. For this reason, agriculture is known as the most important source of non-point pollution of groundwater nitrates caused by human activities. The nitrate range of plain varies from 0 to 115 mg/l. Also, the level of EC varies from 0.3 to 2.9 ds/m. Both ranges are in warning points, which should be prevented from increasing excessively by adopting management measures. This study mainly aimed at investigating quantitative and qualitative changes of irrigation water in agro-economic terms.
Materials and Methods: The present study was conducted in Urmia plain located in Urmia city of Iran. The area of the plain is 962 km2 and is located on the western side of the lake. The yields of irrigated wheat, forage corn, sunflower and tomato were simulated using the AquaCrop model in the cropping year of 2022-2023; then, the options of reduced irrigation, reduced fertilization and increased groundwater salinity were applied in all stages of crop growth. Also, four groups of climatic, crop, soil and management data were used for the simulation. In proportion to the fact that decreasing crop yield has economic effects, the effects were investigated by calculating water and nitrogen fertilizer physical and economic productivity indexes. Both consumption amount of each input per hectare and the purchase cost of each input were obtained through the interviews with 140 farmers using random classification sampling method. By adding all the costs, the cost of each product was calculated and the farmers' income was obtained according to the yield and price of the products. Then, changes in costs were examined by changing the amount of irrigation and fertilization. Changes in income were also calculated by applying each option, and net profit was obtained by changing the costs and revenues. By carrying out yield simulation and applying options, the impacts of yield reduction on farmers' productivity and profit were calculated and accordingly, the potential areas for growing each crop in each region were determined.
Results and Discussion: Decreased fertilization demonstrated the utmost effect and increased salinity of irrigation water and groundwater revealed the least effect on the yield of crops. Among the two indexes, the economic productivity index of water IRI rials/m3 and fertilizer IRI rials/kg was chosen, based on which tomato (209580, 3005000) and sunflower (177630, 2115720) in region 5, forage corn (94900, 1323500) and irrigated wheat (5620, 454570) in regions 3 and 6 had the highest rate, respectively. Furthermore, the rate of fertilizer economic productivity index was higher than water productivity. After calculating these indicators, the value of the water and fertilizer economic productivity index was recalculated after applying the options and the changes were analyzed. With the reduction of irrigation, the water economic efficiency index for some crops decreased in some areas and increased in some other areas, but with the decrease in fertilization, the economic efficiency of fertilizer decreased in all areas and all crops. In both options, tomato and wheat had the highest and lowest amount, respectively.
 Conclusions: Considering the obtained results and the quantitative and qualitative effects of water reduction in the region, it is necessary to reduce the effects of excessive use of chemical fertilizers before reaching a critical stage. In addition, reducing the excessive use of surface and underground water is vital. If the current trend continues, the cultivation pattern and the type of land use should be changed according to the conditions, or additional costs may be imposed on the farmers to eliminate the effects of excessive consumption, and all these cases require proper management of water resources to maintain their quantity and quality. Given the high impacts of the fertilizer reduction option and the economic productivity index of fertilizer, the possibility of replacing organic fertilizers with nitrate ones should be technically and economically investigated and the high price for using more than the recommended amount of nitrate fertilizers should be determined. These policies are also effective for reducing salinity because the main source of groundwater salinity is excessive fertilization. It is also suggested that appropriate irrigation technologies are introduced to the farmers and the correct cultivation patterns are presented in each region of the whole area. Finally, strict management actions should be taken to moderate the destructive effects of excessive fertilization and to reduce the over-exploitation of surface and groundwater.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
AquaCrop Model, Deficit Irrigation, Nitrate Pollution, Productivity, Salinity
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آمار
تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 168
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