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معرفی و تحلیل کلان روندهای مؤثر در آب، خاک و کشاورزی در جهان و ایران تا سال 2050 | ||
| تحقیقات مهندسی سازه های آبیاری و زهکشی | ||
| دوره 24، شماره 93، تیر 1403، صفحه 101-118 اصل مقاله (1.85 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: یادداشت فنی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/idser.2024.365754.1581 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| علیرضا اسمعیلی فلک1؛ فریبرز عباسی* 2 | ||
| 1کارشناس ارشد کشاورزی (علوم باغبانی) و مسئول امور بینالملل معاونت آب و خاک، وزارت جهاد کشاورزی | ||
| 2موسسه تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی کشاورزی | ||
| چکیده | ||
| جهان امروز واجد مشخصههای متفاوتی با گذشته است و از جمله این مشخصهها میتوان به تغییرات شدید و رقابتی، سازگاری پایین، پیچیدگیها، عدم قطعیتها اشاره نمود. بخش کشاورزی نیز بعنوان تولید کننده عمده غذا در جهان از این قاعده مستثنی نبوده و به گواه گزارشهای علمی و پیشبینیها انتظار میرود این تغییرات تا سال 2050 برجستهتر و چالشبرانگیزتر شوند. بدیهی است برای غلبه به این محیط پیچیده و رقابتی، ضرورت دارد کشورها با در نظر گرفتن شرایط و چشماندازهای توسعهای خود، از ابزارها و روشهای کارآمد استفاده نموده و با رویکرد تعاملی در سطوح ملی و بینالمللی، تدوین و اجرای برنامههای راهبردی افزایش تابآوری و سازگاری را در سرلوحه سیاستهای توسعه پایدار خود قرار دهند. یکی از این روشهایی که در دهههای اخیر مورد توجه قرار گرفته، آیندهپژوهی مبتنی بر بررسی کلانروندها است که با استناد به روند تغییرات و ارزیابی دادههای موثق، سیمای شفافتری را از سناریوهای محتمل در آینده برای سیاستگذاران و دولتمردان فراهم میآورند. ازآنجاییکه ایران نیز در زمرة کشورهای آسیبپذیر از اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی قرار داشته و کم و بیش تحت تاثیر سایر عوامل محدود کننده بخش کشاورزی میباشد، در این مقاله سعی شده، روندهای موثر و پیشبینیهای مرتبط با آب، خاک و کشاورزی تا سال 2050 میلادی در ایران و جهان مورد بررسی، مقایسه و تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته و ضمن تاکید بر ضرورت همگرایی ملی و اتخاذ تدابیر لازم، اولویتها و راهبردهای اجرایی برای مواجه با شرایط پیشرو تبیین و پیشنهاد گردد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| کلانروند؛ امنیت غذایی؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ منابع تولید | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Introduction and Analysis of Effective Megatrends in Water, Soil and Agriculture in the World and Iran Until 2050 | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Alireza Esmaili Falak1؛ Fariborz Abbasi2 | ||
| 11- Senior Expert Agriculture (Horticultural Science), Head of International Affair, Deputy of Water and Soil, Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad. | ||
| 2Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, AERI | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Nowadays, the world has different features than in the past, including intense and competitive changes, low adaptability, complexities, and uncertainties. The agricultural sector, as a major food producer worldwide, is not exempt from these traits, and, according to scientific reports and predictions, these changes are expected to become more prominent and challenging by 2050. In addition to the instability and restriction of main agriculture resources (water and soil), which can be seen in most parts of the world, other issues such as population growth and aging, rural-to-urban migration, declining willingness to work in agriculture, paradigm shift in food supply and demand, and most importantly climate change, have create serious obstacles in agriculture and food security governance of human societies. On the other hand, the technical and hidden aspects of these factors, as well as their entanglements and interactions, have made it more difficult to investigation. It is quite obvious that to overcome this complex and competitive environment, it is essential for countries to utilize efficient tools and methods, taking into account their own developmental conditions, by adopting an interactive approach at national and international levels, they must prioritize the formulation and implementation of strategic programs to enhance resilience and adaptability within their sustainable development policies. One such method that has gained attention in recent decades is futures studies based on the analysis of megatrends, which, through logical data analysis, provide a clearer picture of future priorities, strengths, and weaknesses for policymakers and statesmen. Given that Iran is also among the vulnerable countries against climate change impacts, the changing trend and predictions of the most significant factors affecting water, soil, and food have been evaluated, and while comparing Iran's situation globally, the necessity of serious attention and national resolve to confront these conditions has been emphasized. Studying of the effective trends in the agricultural, especially "climate changes" and "competition for production resources", shows that the emergence and intensification of conditions are quite evident, and despite of the expected unknown progress in the future, planning and implementation of actions based on "Mitigation" and "Adaptation" approaches are undeniable. Since Iran is located in the arid and semi-arid region of the world, it has always faced the negative effects of climate change, especially in terms of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of water resources, and considering that more than 93% of food production in Iran is dependent on irrigated croplands, this issue becomes even more important. Although in the country's Seventh Development Plan, the climate change issue is not considered enough, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive plan compatible with country conditions as a national agenda at the parliament and government level, as well as formation of a national working group consisting of responsible bodies, to implementation of appropriate action based on priorities. Of course, it is necessary that for each topic, the relevant government body should be adopt effective policies, for example, in population and urbanization issues, can be relatively managed through the implementation of incentive programs. Of course, the implementation of large-scale projects like this, will definitely not be realized without the participation and presence of the people, and therefore, one of the important priorities in the current conditions is focusing and preparing comprehensive plan in order to educate and improve public awareness, especially among the young generation, farmers, experts and Even managers. Also, in order to move on the path of sustainable development of the country in the field of water and soil, it is suggested that the following programs and approaches be emphasized and paid attention to: • Conducting of water resources management, especially underground water resources, by implementing watershed plans, flood control, optimal use of green water and water recycling projects. • Improving the productivity and efficiency of irrigation by using modern irrigation methods and using smart irrigation technologies and precision agriculture. • Modifying croping patterns according to the climatic conditions and reducing dependence on climate-sensitive products through plant biotechnology approaches. • Emphasis on the government's support policies for the agricultural sector with the priority of mechanized agricultural projects with high levels and productivity, such as agricultural settlements and revitalization of production hubs. • Development of international cooperation and exchange of experiences with specialized organizations and other countries that work in the field of agriculture and climate change. Fortunately, after establishment of the Global Soil Partnership Program or GSP, in the FAO, valuable actions and activities related to various aspects of sustainable soil management began with the cooperation of countries. Iran joined this program in 2016 and has had several joint programs in the fields of training, soil governance, awareness raising, managing salt affected soils, organizing soil laboratories network, increasing soil organic matter, soil studies, etc. with this international institution. And it is necessary to consider more arrangements for the maximum use of significant capacities with this global program. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Megatrend, Food Security, Climate change, Production resources | ||
| مراجع | ||
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