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ارزیابی شرایط اقتصادی زراعت صنوبر، تحت تأثیر نرخ بهره در محیط ریسکی | ||
| تحقیقات جنگل و صنوبر ایران | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 02 دی 1403 | ||
| نوع مقاله: علمی- پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/ijfpr.2024.367613.2183 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سید مجتبی مجاوریان* 1؛ فواد عشقی1؛ کمال عطایی2؛ مهسا تسلیمی3؛ ماریا شاهنوری4 | ||
| 1گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران. | ||
| 2استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ایران | ||
| 3اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری | ||
| 4دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران. | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Assessment the economic conditions of poplar cultivation, a case study of the effect of interest rates in a risky environment | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| S.M. Mojaverian1؛ F. Eshghi1؛ K. Ataie Solout2؛ M. Taslimi3؛ M. Shahnouri4 | ||
| 1Agricultural Economics Department,, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. | ||
| 2Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran. | ||
| 3Agricultural economics Sari university of Agricultural Sciences and natural resources | ||
| 4Ph.D Student of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Background and purpose: Despite the numerous studies conducted in the field of economic evaluation, less research has focused on the optimal age of cutting and the efficiency of wood cultivation under the conditions of uncertainty in tree growth period and the wood market. The general purpose of this research, is to evaluate the economic evaluation of the poplar wood cultivation plan in different risk scenarios Materials and methods: The data used were obtained from the results of the study by Mohammadi Limaei et al. (2013). In mentioned study, data from research projects conducted over a 10-year period were used on Populus deltoids. Design data were got in seven colonies. In the present study, the Faustmann model was used and the tree growth function was estimated through fuzzy regression in three pessimistic, average and optimistic scenarios. Deciding on the most economical time to cut a tree means solving the Faustmann model maximization problem. The optimal cutting time in this model can be solved for two states: One-time cultivation and permanent cultivation. In One-time cultivation mode, the opportunity cost of the next cycle of cultivation is not considered. On the contrary In permanent cultivation after each harvest, there are opportunity cost for the cycle of planting and maintaining the next period occurs. In this study, optimization of wood cultivation has been done in one period. The net present value (NPV) criterion helps to choose a suitable species and determine the optimal exploitation age and is better than other criteria understandable. This measure is based on the calculation of net current profit over a period of time. To predict the price of wood, we used price analysis method. In this way, forecasting is achieved based on the separation and combination of trend, cyclical and irregular price components Results: Among the types of function forms, the Cubic form provides better interpretable results due to its similarity with the biological function. The same form has been used in this research. The results of estimating the volume function of Poplar wood at different ages using fuzzy regression in three pessimistic, optimistic and average states showed that the largest volume of wood in the pessimistic state was 128.4 cubic meters per hectare at the age of 11 years, in the average state it was 189.7 cubic meters. It happens at the age of 13 years and in the optimistic case 307.8 cubic meters at the age of 15 years. The per m3 wood price forecast based on the analysis of the components in three pessimistic, average and optimistic conditions showed 82.7, 102 and 121 million Rials in 2045. The results showed that the present value (with a rate of 18%) of per hec. poplar cultivation in a pessimistic state is 887 million Rials and is achieved in the ninth year. In average state, the highest income of per hec. Poplar cultivation is estimated about 1349 million Rials in the ninth year. Finally in the optimistic case, the highest income of per hec. Poplar cultivation is estimated about 2194 million Rials, which is generated in the tenth year. With the increase of the interest rate to the rate of inflation (about 50%), the optimal cut-off age will be reduced to five years. General conclusion: With the increase of the discount rate, the optimal age of tree cutting and the discounted expected return decrease; So that at a discount rate of 14%, the optimal age of tree cutting is 11 years and the discounted expected yield is 2019 million Rials, and at a discount rate of 50%, the optimal age of tree cutting is five years and the expected discounted yield is estimated to be 180 million Rials. Considering the non-compliance of the goal of maximizing income, which is the concern of the investor, and the goal of maximum wood production, which is the goal of the society, and the role of interest rate in this gap, it is strongly suggested that low-interest loan facilities be available to the investors of this industry. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Fastman model, Fuzzy regression, optimal cut-off age, interest rate | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 160 |
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