| تعداد نشریات | 285 |
| تعداد نشریات سازمان | 83 |
| تعداد شماره‌ها | 3,086 |
| تعداد مقالات | 34,442 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 48,919,049 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 79,355,867 |
واکاوی پیشران‌های کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعۀ ظرفیت تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در مواجهه با کم‌آبی (مطالعۀ موردی: استان زنجان) | ||
| تحقیقات مهندسی سازه های آبیاری و زهکشی | ||
| دوره 26، بهار - شماره پیاپی 98، اردیبهشت 1404، صفحه 42-19 اصل مقاله (954.77 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22092/idser.2025.368874.1609 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| مجتبی نوری* 1؛ روح اله رضائی2؛ محمدکاظم رحیمی3 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری ترویج کشاورزی پایدار دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران. | ||
| 2استاد گروه ترویج، ارتباطات و توسعه روستایی دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران. | ||
| 3مدیر جهاد کشاورزی شهرستان زنجان، زنجان، ایران. | ||
| چکیده | ||
| با توجه به روند نزولی بارندگی و پدیدۀ کم‌آبی طی دهه‌های گذشته در استان زنجان که به چالش‌هایی مانند تخلیۀ برخی روستاها و کاهش تاب‌آوری جوامع محلی انجامیده است و با در نظر گرفتن تهدید جدی این بحران برای امنیت معیشتی کشاورزان و امنیت غذایی منطقه، این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی و واکاوی پیشران‌های کلیدی اثرگذار بر توسعه ظرفیت تاب‌آوری کشاورزان استان زنجان در مواجهه با کم‌آبی بهاجرا درآمد. برای این منظور، از رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی شامل عدم قطعیت بحرانی و تحلیل اثرهای متقاطع و قضاوت 18 متخصص منتخب استان استفاده گردید. به منظور کسب اطمینان از اعتبار علمی تحقیق، روایی عوامل از طریق مرور جامع ادبیات و اعتبارسنجی توسط پانل متخصصان (با نمونه‌گیری هدفمند و دستیابی به اشباع نظری) تأمین شد. پایایی تحلیل ساختاری با آزمون پایداری MICMAC سنجیده شد که نتایج بهدست آمده پایداری کامل تحلیل و قابلیت اطمینان بالای یافته‌ها را تأیید کرد. پس از ارزیابی اهمیت و عدم قطعیت عوامل توسط خبرگان، که نشان داد عامل «پذیرش عمق بحران» با میانگین رتبۀ 18/42 بالاترین اهمیت و عامل «تفکر سیستمی در حکمرانی» با میانگین رتبه 18/49 بالاترین عدم قطعیت را دارند، تحلیل نهایی MICMAC روی 7 عامل کلیدی (با اهمیت و عدم قطعیت بالا) اجرا شد. بر اساس نتایج این تحلیل ساختاری مبتنی بر داده‌های خبرگان، سه عامل پذیرش عمق بحران، تفکر سیستمی در حکمرانی و کنترل برداشت‌های مازاد به عنوان پیشران‌های کلیدی محوری شناسایی شدند؛ تحلیل‌ها نشان داد این عوامل نقشی حیاتی و پیوندی (اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری بالا) در سیستم تاب‌آوری آیندۀ استان زنجان دارند. یافتۀ کلیدی این تحلیل، لزوم توجه و اقدام یکپارچه روی این سه پیشرانِ به‌هم‌پیوسته است برای آنکه تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در برابر بحران آب به شکلی پایدار افزایش یابد. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تاب‌آوری؛ بحران آب؛ تحلیل اثرات متقابل؛ آینده‌پژوهی؛ استان زنجان | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Exploring Key Drivers Affecting the Development of Farmers' Resilience Capacity in the Face of Water Scarcity | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| mojtaba noori1؛ Rouhallah Rezaei2؛ mohammad kazem rahimi3 | ||
| 11- PhD student in Sustainable Agriculture Promotion, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran. | ||
| 2Professor of Extension, Communication and Rural Development Department of Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran. | ||
| 3Director of the Agricultural Jihad in Zanjan City, Zanjan, Iran. | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Introduction Water scarcity can result from drought, a decline in water resources, or a combination of both factors. Under these conditions, the term "crisis" aptly describes the situation. The global water crisis is among the most significant threats facing humanity; it is estimated that approximately 3.5 billion people will experience water shortages by 2025, with global water demand projected to rise by 30% by 2050. To mitigate farmers' vulnerability and mitigate the impacts of water scarcity, the concept of resilience has gained attention. Resilience reflects the capacity of an individual or system to adapt effectively during critical situations and identify rational strategies to overcome crises. Today, resilience serves not only as a tool for crisis management but also as a preventive and predictive measure aimed at maintaining orderly continuity under various conditions. Notably, the agricultural sector faces earlier and more severe consequences of water scarcity than other sectors due to the direct threats it poses to farmers' livelihoods and national food security. Given this critical importance, the objective of this study is to identify and analyze key drivers that influence the development of farmers' resilience against water scarcity crises. Materials and Methods Given that "capacity development" pertains to future-oriented activities, this study utilized the critical uncertainty approach and the cross-effects matrix, common methods in futures research, to identify relevant drivers. Initially, a comprehensive review of existing literature was conducted to identify significant issues related to resilience against water scarcity. After summarizing, consolidating, and eliminating redundant or overlapping concepts, these factors were compiled into questionnaires and presented during semi-structured interviews with experts, specialists, and key informants. Participants rated each factor based on "importance" and "uncertainty" for the horizon of 1413 using a five-point Likert scale (very low, low, medium, high, very high). Subsequently, experts weighted and ranked these factors according to their perceived importance and uncertainty. Interaction analysis was then performed to examine interrelationships among key factors, assessing their mutual influence. This method, implemented through specialized futures research software MICMAC, is particularly suitable for analyzing variable interdependencies and compiling expert insights. MICMAC employs a matrix-based approach to elucidate the relationships among influential factors in qualitative research. Results Using the critical uncertainty approach, factors identified as both highly important and uncertain were deemed key drivers. Average weights assigned to each factor were plotted onto an importance-uncertainty matrix, allowing the selection of critical factors. Identified factors included: (1) reforming policies that incentivize the production of water-intensive crops; (2) acceptance of the severity of the crisis within the agricultural community; (3) systemic governance of agricultural water resources; (4) promoting optimal water-use practices among farmers; (5) controlling excessive agricultural water extraction; (6) reforming regional cropping patterns; and (7) promoting sustainable livelihoods independent of water-intensive practices. Results demonstrated that policy reforms targeting water-intensive crop production, enhancing water-use culture among farmers, and adjusting regional cropping patterns significantly impact farmers' resilience to water scarcity. Additionally, key-dependent factors highly influenced by others were the agricultural community's acknowledgement of crisis severity, systemic governance of agricultural water resources, and regulation of excessive water withdrawals. Conclusions This study identified three primary drivers crucial to developing farmers' resilience in Zanjan province: recognizing the severity of the water crisis, adopting systemic governance approaches to water resources, and regulating excessive agricultural water withdrawals. These drivers are interconnected, implying that changes in one factor will inevitably influence the others. Effective management of these drivers is thus essential for advancing resilience among farmers facing water scarcity. Given the critical status of water resources in Zanjan, where five out of seven plains are classified as prohibited or critical zones, provincial administrators and planners, along with the broader agricultural community, must acknowledge the depth of this crisis. By adopting systemic approaches and managing water consumption responsibly, significant strides can be made towards building resilience to the ongoing water scarcity crisis. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Resilience, Water Crisis, Zanjan Province, Interaction Analysis, Futures Studies | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Abdolshahnejad, M., Khosravi, H., Nazari Samani, A., & Alambeigi, A. (2022). Identification of variables affecting farmer’s resilience to dust based on expert opinion. Iranian Rangeland and Desert Research, 29 (1). 36-52. (in Persian). Agricultural Statistics Year 1401-1402 (2024). Deputy Director of Statistics, Center for Statistics, Information and Communication Technology. 1 and 3. (in Persian) Alibakhshi, H., Dourandish, A. & Sabuhi Sabuni, M. (2020). Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Agricultural Market. Agricultural Economics, 13(4), 55-86. Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23–40. Ardakaniyan, R (2021). Water Scarcity Adaptation National workgroup. Available on: https://www.wsanw.ir. National Water Scarcity Adaptation Program Book (in Persian). Asadpourian, Z., Naderi mahdei, K. & Mohammadi, Y. (2022). Investigating the Strategies of Sustainable Management of Agricultural Water Resources in Lorestan Province. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Journal, 17(2), 63-80. (in Persian). Astaneh, M., Taghipour, F. & Davazdahemami, M. H. (2019). developing a model for social capacity building and water crisis socialization. strategic Research on Social Problems in Iran, 8(2), 25,19-22. (in Persian). Bagheri, E., Fard Moradinia, S., Jani, R. & Falsafian, A. (2024). Analysis and Investigation of Hydrological Drought Indicators in Mahenshan of Zanjan Province. Iran-Watershed Management Science & Engineering, 18(65), 74-93. Bagheri, R., Ghorbani, M., Khalighi Sigaroudi, S. & Alambeigi, A. (2021). Analysis of Factors Affecting Resilience of Local Communities in the Face of Climate Fluctuations in Yazd. Journal of Range and Watershed Managment, 74(2), 303-321. (in Persian). Bathaiy, S. S., Chizari, M. & Sadighi, H. (2024). Discriminant Function of the Factors Determining the Farmers' Resilience to Climate Changes (Case Study: Farmers in Ghezel Ozan River Basin, Zanjan Province). Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 55(1), 95-112. (in Persian). Behboudi. D. & Ghorbani. F. (2023). Analyzing the Leverage Points of Qualitative System Dynamic Model of Water Governance (Case Study: Qarranqu Basin), Iran-Water Resources Research. 19 (1). 22-45. (in Persian). Benhamou, P. A., Bernués, A., Gaspar, P., Lizarralde, Manuel, J., Mancilla, L, Mandaluniz, N., Mena, Y., Soriano, B., Ondé, D., & Collado, M. (2024). How do farm and farmer attributes explain perceived resilience? Agricultural Systems, Vol 219. Chikwanha, O.C., Mupfiga, S., Olagbegi, B.R., Katiyatiya, C.L.F., Molotsi, A.H., Abiodun, B.J., Dzama, K., & Mapiye, C. (2021). Impact of water scarcity on dryland sheep meat production and quality: Key recovery and resilience strategies, Journal of Arid Environments, 190, 104511. Chimi, P. M., Mala, W., Fobane, J. L., Ngamsou A. K., Batamack N. B., Nganmeni, L., Pokam, E., Minfele, S., Matick, J. Tchandjie, F., Manga, F., & Bell, j. m. (2024). Factors affecting decision-making to strengthen climate resilience of smallholder farms in the Centre Region of Cameroon. Climate Smart Agriculture. 1(1), 100004. Delangizan, S., Karimi, M. SH., & Norouzi, H. (2017). Regional Scenario Planning Based On Critical Uncertainties. Urban Management, 16(3) 48, 497-512. (in Persian). Delbecq, A. L., Van de Ven, A. H., & Gustafson, D. H. (1975). Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes. Scott Foresman. Finke, P. (2024). Modelling soil development under global change. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-55583-1 Godet, M. (2008). Strategic foresight: Use and misuse of scenario building. Cahiers du LIPSOR, Paris. Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development. UNESCO Publishing. Haas, S., Gianoli, A., & Van Eerd, M. (2021). The roles of community resilience and risk appraisal in climate change adaptation: the experience of the Kannagi Nagar resettlement in Chennai. Environment and Urbanization, 33(2), 560–578. IPCC (2014). Climate change 2014, Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fiúh Assessment Report. Jafari, A.M., Ghadami Firouzabadi, A., Solgi, M., Zarei, GH., & Shanazi, K. (2024). Economic Valuation of Water in Agricultural Sector of Hamedan Province, Iran. Water Research in Agriculture, 37(4), 369-383. (in Persian). Jamshidi, A. & Anabestani, A. (2022). Interpretive Structural modeling of factors affecting the development of resilience to climate change (with emphasis on drought) of villagers in west of Urmia Lake. Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies, 11(42), 1-22. (in Persian). Karimi, S., & Sepahvand, F. (2019). Effective educational drivers on the economic empowerment of women in Nahavand rural communities in line with the development of home businesses. Agricultural Education Research Management. 12(54). 30-52. (in Persian). KHodamoradi, S., Maddahi, M. E., Ahmadi, H., Besharat, M. A., & Mazaheri Tehrani, M. M. (2021). The Conceptualization of Cultural Resilience. Strategic studies of public policy (Strategic studies of globalization Journal). 11(38). 276-297. (in Persian) Kuntke, F., Linsner, S., Steinbrink, E., Franken, J., & Reuter, C. (2022). Resilience in Agriculture: Communication and Energy Infrastructure Dependencies of German Farmers. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 13(2), 214-229. Maracchi, G. (2000). Agricultural drought—a practical approach to definition, assessment and mitigation strategies. In Drought and drought mitigation in Europe, 63-75. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands. Mesgaran, M. & Azadi, P. (2018). A National Adaptation Plan for Water Scarcity in Iran. Stanford Iran 2040 project. www.iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran2040 Mohammadloo, M., Rahmani Fazli, A. R., Sajadi, J. & Cheraghi, M. (2024). Evaluating the effects of drought on economic resilience of rural settlements (case study: Mahneshan County, Zanjan province). Economic Geography Research, 5(15), 1-19. (in Persian). Molle, F., & Berkoff, J. (2007). Water pricing in irrigation: Mapping the debate in the light of experience. Book Chapters, International Water Management Institute. Moradi, Z & Azami, S (2024). Major Drivers of Water Stress: An Empirical Analysis of Iran, Journal of Quantitative Economics, in press. (in Persian). Nazari, B., Jenab, M. & Fazeli Sangani, M. (2019). Analysis of Gross Value of Irrigated Agricultural Products in Qazvin Province Based on Gviap Index. Journal of Water and Soil Resources Conservation, 8 (3), 11-25. (in Persian). Nicholas, P., Fowler, S., Midmore, P., Coopmans, I., Draganova, M., Petitt, A. & Senni, S. (2021). Evidence of resilience capacity in farmers’ narratives: Accounts of robustness, adaptability and transformability across five different European farming systems. Journal of Rural Studies. 88. 388-399. Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications. Information & Management, 42(1), 15–29. Omran, A., Khorish, M. & Saleh, M. (2014). Structural analysis with knowledge-based MICMAC approach. International Journal of Computer Applications, 86 (5), 256-268. Pourasadollah. M. & Rhimizadeh M. R. (2018). An introduction to water governance, climate change and uncertainty. Journal Extension Scientific (Professional) Aquifer. (in Persian). Prat-Benhamou, A., Bernués, A., Gaspar, P., Lizarralde, J., Mancilla-Leytón, J., Mandaluniz, N., Mena, Y., Soriano, B., Onde, D., &Martin-Collado, D. (2024). How do farm and farmer attributes explain perceived resilience? Agricultural Systems. 219. 104016. Rafiei, M. (2021). The pillars of futures studies. available on: https://modireamari.org Rahbar. S. A. Shahhosseini A. A. & Niazi. I. (2018). Identifying and analyzing macro trends affecting crude oil prices with a foresight approach. Management Improvement.40 (12), 26-1. (in Persian). Ramazani, M. E., & Khodapanah, K. (2021). Future Study of Resilience Improvement of Rural Against Drought Based on Practical Training, A Case Study: Ghale Chaei Watershed Area. Regional Planning, 10(40), 147-162. (in Persian). Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(4), 353–375. Saaty, T. L. (2008). Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(1), 83–98. Sadeghloo, T., Bozarjemehri, K. & Ahmadi, S. (2022). Analysis the Effect of Perception of flood Risk on the Resilience of Local Communities to Disasters (Study Area: Villages of Binalood County). Geography and Environmental Planning, 33(3), 119-138. (in Persian). Saei, R., Asadi, A., Kalantari, K. & Alambeigi, A. (2024). The Application of Futures Studies in Identifying and Analyzing Factors Affecting the Challenges of Damask Roses Cultivation Development in East Azerbaijan Province. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Journal, 19(2), 39-53. (in Persian). Sarmasti, M. (2021). Fars News Agency interview with the director of the Protection and Operation Office of the Zanjan Regional Water Company. Available on: https://farsnews.ir/Provinces/1666006748000087110 (in Persian). Sepahvand, F., Naderi Mahdei, K., Gholamrezai, S. & Bijani, M. (2023). The Use of Foresight in the Sustainable Management of Water Resources in the Agricultural Sector of the Karkheh-Olia Basin. Journal of Rural Research, 13(4), 650-669. (in Persian). Seyed Akhlaghi, S. J. & Taleshi, M. (2018). Improving the resilience of local communities; Future Strategy for dealing with drought Case study: Hablehrood watershed. Iran Nature, 3(3), 60-68. (in Persian). Tafula, M., Chilundo, M., Sousa, W., Bjornlund, H., Pittock, J., Ramshaw, P., & Wellington, M. (2025). Climate change adaptation benefits from rejuvenated irrigation farming systems in Mozambique. International Journal of Water Resources. World Resources Institute (WRI) (2021). Ensuring Prosperity in a Water-stressed World – our challeng. Available on: https://www.wri.org/water. Yeganegi. S.K. & Babaei. F. (2022). Application of Operations Research in Futures Studies. Research Paper on Industrial Management and Engineering, 4(13), 124-133. (in Persian). Zanjan Regional Water Company (2022). Report on the Status of Groundwater Resources in Zanjan Province. Ab-ban Quarterly, (20), 11. Zhou, H., Jing’ai W., Jinhong W., & Huicong J. (2009). Resilience to natural hazards: A geographic perspective. Nat Hazards, 53:21-43. | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 476 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 230 |
||